NYSE: PPG · Specialty Chemicals
PPG Industries (PPG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values PPG Industries (PPG) at $129.19 a share. The stock last closed at $105.15, which puts the model's fair value 22.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. PPG Industries, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
PPG Industries, Inc. operates globally as a manufacturer and distributor of paints, protective coatings, and various specialty materials.
Faircurve's model valued PPG at $129.19 a share on 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $123.96; the fair value moved +4.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $97.37 to $120.28, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade for this valuation is High.
The company's overall quality score is 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. (IFF), Albemarle Corporation (ALB), RPM International Inc. (RPM), and Element Solutions Inc (ESI). The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports with a median size of 5.7%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PPG?
The calibrated range for PPG over 63 trading days is $97.37 to $120.28. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PPG's own options imply (30% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $103.13 to $158.53. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PPG score on business quality?
PPG Industries's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 55 | 10.9%ROIC | 11.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 22 | 0.90xFCF / net income | 1.02x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 0.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 63 | 1.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 80 | 2.13xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.77x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 75 | 1.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does PPG compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty chemicals closest to PPG Industries in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFF International Flavors & Fragrances Inc. | $82.42 | $77.33 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| LYB LyondellBasell Industries N.V. | $58.58 | $57.71 | -1.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ALB Albemarle Corporation | $104.59 | $134.30 | +28.4% | Undervalued |
| RPM RPM International Inc. | $99.19 | $125.23 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| APD Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. | $277.57 | $277.94 | +0.1% | Low evidence grade |
| SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Inc. | $57.70 | $56.70 | -1.7% | Low evidence grade |
| ESI Element Solutions Inc | $37.93 | $30.62 | -19.3% | Overvalued |
| WLK Westlake Corporation | $63.50 | $65.89 | +3.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does PPG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PPG Industries's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PPG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.6% over one month.
How PPG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -5.6% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -5.1% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +1.2% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -6.0% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -6.8% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +5.7% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -5.7% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | +1.1% |
PPG Industries at a glance
PPG Industries, Inc. operates globally as a manufacturer and distributor of paints, protective coatings, and various specialty materials.
- Market value
- $23.9B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Specialty Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $17.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.80
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PPG Industries on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PPG was $123.96. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $129.19, a change of +4.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PPG Industries's valuation
Is PPG Industries stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PPG reads as Undervalued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $129.19 a share against a last close of $105.15, a gap of +22.9%.
What is PPG's fair value?
$129.19 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $103.13 to $158.53.
What price range does the model give PPG?
$97.37 to $120.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does PPG Industries report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PPG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.8% around the report of 29 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PPG is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.