NYSE: ARMK · Specialty Business Services
Aramark (ARMK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Aramark (ARMK) at $58.18 a share. The stock last closed at $54.61, which puts the model's fair value 6.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Aramark.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $55.95 to $58.18 (+4.0%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $54.61 is 6.5% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 16 Nov 2026. On the model's Earnings Momentum list since 15 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ARMK?
The calibrated range for ARMK over 63 trading days is $47.13 to $69.50. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $39.78 to $82.14. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
Aramark is based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Established in 1959, it provides a comprehensive array of services encompassing food management, facility solutions, and uniform provision.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $58.18 a share on 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $55.95, so the fair value moved +4.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $47.13 to $69.50. As there is no live options data for the stock, the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
On quality against comparable companies, the model gives Aramark an overall score of 52 out of 100. Earnings quality stands out at 99, with free cash flow to net income of 1.22x against a peer median of 0.95x. Stability scores 88, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 0.4 pts against a peer median of 0.6 pts. The balance sheet scores 13, with net debt to EBITDA of 4.34x against a peer median of 1.66x. The model compares Aramark with Rollins, Copart, UniFirst, Maximus, ABM Industries and Thomson Reuters, each with a fair value of its own on the site. UL Solutions and RB Global are also compared, with no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ARMK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Aramark's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How ARMK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | +8.2% |
| 12 May 2026 | +13.9% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +8.7% |
| 17 Nov 2025 | -3.5% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -8.7% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | -1.5% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | -2.8% |
| 6 Aug 2024 | +1.8% |
How does ARMK score on business quality?
Aramark's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 17 | 6.9%ROIC | 10.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 99 | 1.22xFCF / net income | 0.95x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 55 | 6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 13 | 4.34xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.66x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 88 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.6 pts |
How does ARMK compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty business services closest to Aramark in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ULS UL Solutions Inc. | $80.40 | $72.15 | -10.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ROL Rollins, Inc. | $37.35 | $32.44 | -13.1% | Fairly valued |
| RBA.TO RB Global, Inc. | $130.67 | $140.73 | +7.7% | Low evidence grade |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | $31.06 | $30.53 | -1.7% | Fairly valued |
| UNF UniFirst Corporation | $256.12 | $250.37 | -2.2% | Fairly valued |
| MMS Maximus, Inc. | $65.46 | $67.27 | +2.8% | Fairly valued |
| ABM ABM Industries Inc. | $53.62 | $56.70 | +5.7% | Fairly valued |
| TRI.TO Thomson Reuters Corporation | $155.07 | $166.75 | +7.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ARMK, the peer-implied price, is $82.78 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All specialty business services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Aramark at a glance
Based in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Aramark, established in 1959, provides a comprehensive array of services encompassing food management, facility solutions, and uniform provision.
- Market value
- $14.2B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Business Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $21.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ARMK was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Aramark on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ARMK was $55.95. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $58.18, a change of +4.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Aramark's valuation
Is Aramark stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ARMK reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $58.18 a share against a last close of $54.61, a gap of +6.5%.
What is ARMK's fair value?
$58.18 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $39.78 to $82.14.
What price range does the model give ARMK?
$47.13 to $69.50 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Aramark report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ARMK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.9% around the report of 12 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ARMK is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ARMK
The model has an idea open on ARMK under Earnings Momentum since 15 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ARMK with their outcomes. A free account is enough.