NYSE: MMS · Specialty Business Services
Maximus (MMS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Maximus (MMS) at $59.86 a share. The stock last closed at $52.65, which puts the model's fair value 13.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Maximus, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Maximus, Inc. specializes in delivering business process services tailored for governmental health and human welfare initiatives. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and International Services.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $59.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.1% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $61.77. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $50.22 to $72.99, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model confidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for Maximus, Inc. is 64 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with ABM Industries Inc., EVERTEC, Inc., UniFirst Corporation, UL Solutions Inc., Aramark, and Rollins, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -19.9% to +9.1%, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 7.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MMS?
The calibrated range for MMS over 63 trading days is $50.22 to $72.99. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $40.41 to $84.05. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MMS score on business quality?
Maximus's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 74 | 12.6%ROIC | 8.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 66 | 1.17xFCF / net income | 1.59x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 22 | 2.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 4.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 12.5%Net buybacks / market value | 5.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 56 | 2.29xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.92x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does MMS compare with similar companies?
The companies in specialty business services closest to Maximus in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABM ABM Industries Inc. | $48.97 | $52.70 | +7.6% | Fairly valued |
| EVTC EVERTEC, Inc. | $27.23 | $34.94 | +28.3% | Undervalued |
| UNF UniFirst Corporation | $251.78 | $249.16 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| DLX Deluxe Corporation | $22.61 | $28.54 | +26.2% | Low evidence grade |
| ULS UL Solutions Inc. | $65.99 | $66.64 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| ARMK Aramark | $55.55 | $59.18 | +6.5% | Fairly valued |
| ROL Rollins, Inc. | $30.16 | $28.95 | -4.0% | Fairly valued |
| RBA.TO RB Global, Inc. | $116.75 | $114.12 | -2.3% | Low evidence grade |
All specialty business services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MMS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Maximus's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MMS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -6.3% |
| 7 May 2026 | +0.5% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -19.9% |
| 20 Nov 2025 | +9.1% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +8.8% |
| 8 May 2025 | +1.9% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -8.0% |
| 20 Nov 2024 | -6.1% |
Maximus at a glance
Maximus, Inc. specializes in delivering business process services (BPS) tailored for governmental health and human welfare initiatives. Its operations are structured into three main divisions: U.S. Services, U.S. Federal Services, and International Services.
- Market value
- $2.8B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Business Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 0.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Maximus on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MMS was $61.77. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $59.86, a change of -3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Maximus's valuation
Is Maximus stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MMS reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $59.86 a share against a last close of $52.65, a gap of +13.7%.
What is MMS's fair value?
$59.86 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $40.41 to $84.05.
What price range does the model give MMS?
$50.22 to $72.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Maximus report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MMS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -19.9% around the report of 5 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MMS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.