NASDAQ: ASML · Semiconductors
ASML Holding (ASML) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 14 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values ASML Holding (ASML) at $1,947.60 a share. The stock last closed at $1,717.76, which puts the model's fair value 13.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 13 Oct 2026. ASML Holding N.V.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 14 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $2,036.68 to $1,947.60 (-4.4%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $1,717.76 is 13.4% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 14 Oct 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 6% either way. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 6 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 17 Oct 2026.
What price range does the model give ASML?
The calibrated range for ASML over 63 trading days is $1,519.44 to $2,047.58. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ASML's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1,507.15 to $2,480.76. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 14 Oct 2026
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
Faircurve's model valued ASML Holding N.V. at $1,947.60 a share on 14 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 10 Oct 2026 gave $2,036.68, and the fair value moved -4.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $1,519.44 to $2,047.58, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade for ASML is Medium.
The model's overall quality score for ASML is 82 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors against comparable companies. Profitability scored 93, with ROIC at 62.6% against a peer median of 37.9%. Earnings quality scored 78, with FCF / net income at 0.94x against a peer median of 0.80x. Growth quality scored 89, with trailing revenue growth at 15.6% against a peer median of 12.4%. Balance sheet scored 92, with net debt / EBITDA at -0.33x against a peer median of 0.02x. The model compares ASML with Intel Corp. (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (ARM), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN).
Written from the figures on this page for the 14 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ASML report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ASML Holding's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 13 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. ASML's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.3% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ASML's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ASML
How does ASML score on business quality?
ASML Holding's overall quality score is 82 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 93 | 62.6%ROIC | 37.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 0.94xFCF / net income | 0.80x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 89 | 15.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 48 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 92 | -0.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.02x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does ASML compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to ASML Holding in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC Intel Corp. | $102.81 | $96.75 | -5.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $605.53 | $553.98 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| MU Micron Technology, Inc. | $953.19 | $1,446.17 | +51.7% | Undervalued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $464.24 | $584.87 | +26.0% | Undervalued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $301.11 | $342.43 | +13.7% | Fairly valued |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $255.39 | $232.41 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $357.31 | $453.15 | +26.8% | Undervalued |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $287.85 | $278.27 | -3.3% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ASML, the peer-implied price, is $2,319.13 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
ASML Holding at a glance
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems.
- Market value
- $686.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $62.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +34.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 22
- Beta to the US market
- 2.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 13 Oct 2026, 53.0% of the 1,094 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. ASML was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ASML Holding on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 10 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ASML was $2,036.68. As of 14 Oct 2026 it is $1,947.60, a change of -4.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ASML Holding's valuation
Is ASML Holding stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ASML reads as Fairly valued as of 14 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $1,947.60 a share against a last close of $1,717.76, a gap of +13.4%.
What is ASML's fair value?
$1,947.60 a share as of 14 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1,507.15 to $2,480.76.
What price range does the model give ASML?
$1,519.44 to $2,047.58 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,266 past valuations, refreshed 10 Oct 2026.
When does ASML Holding report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ASML moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.6% around the report of 15 Oct 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ASML is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ASML
The model has an idea open on ASML under Scorecard Leaders since 6 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ASML with their outcomes. A free account is enough.