NASDAQ: KLAC · Semiconductors
KLA (KLAC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values KLA (KLAC) at $209.39 a share. The stock last closed at $206.89, which puts the model's fair value 1.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. KLA Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
KLA Corporation specializes in creating, manufacturing, and distributing advanced solutions vital for process control, process optimization, and yield enhancement throughout the global semiconductor and broader electronics industries.
Faircurve's model valued KLA Corporation on 3 Oct 2026 at a fair value of $209.39 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $190.87, and the fair value moved +9.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $175.66 to $271.28, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
KLA Corporation has an overall quality score of 67 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM), Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT), Lam Research Corporation (LRCX), and Intel Corp. (INTC). The stock has moved -16.3%, -3.2%, -12.2%, +0.7%, -4.1%, -1.7%, -0.3%, and -4.3% around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KLAC?
The calibrated range for KLAC over 63 trading days is $175.66 to $271.28. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that KLAC's own options imply (62% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $166.15 to $259.29. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KLAC score on business quality?
KLA's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 45.0%ROIC | 48.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 40 | 0.78xFCF / net income | 0.81x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 82 | 11.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 47 | 0.78xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.09x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 69 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does KLAC compare with similar companies?
The companies in semiconductors closest to KLA in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $293.80 | $295.72 | +0.7% | Fairly valued |
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $272.29 | $253.24 | -7.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $307.49 | $268.33 | -12.7% | Data under review |
| ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $417.15 | $412.95 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $184.87 | $232.73 | +25.9% | Undervalued |
| AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $540.04 | $622.93 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
| LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $347.49 | $372.26 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| INTC Intel Corp. | $119.33 | $111.02 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
When does KLAC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
KLA's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. KLAC's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 17.8% over one month.
How KLAC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -16.3% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -3.2% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -12.2% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +0.7% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -4.1% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -1.7% |
| 31 Jan 2025 | -0.3% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -4.3% |
KLA at a glance
KLA Corporation specializes in creating, manufacturing, and distributing advanced solutions vital for process control, process optimization, and yield enhancement throughout the global semiconductor and broader electronics industries.
- Market value
- $270.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $19.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +33.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 2.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices KLA on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KLAC was $190.87. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $209.39, a change of +9.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about KLA's valuation
Is KLA stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, KLAC reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $209.39 a share against a last close of $206.89, a gap of +1.2%.
What is KLAC's fair value?
$209.39 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $166.15 to $259.29.
What price range does the model give KLAC?
$175.66 to $271.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does KLA report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KLAC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.3% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KLAC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.