NASDAQ: ASTH · Medical Care Facilities
Astrana Health (ASTH) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Astrana Health (ASTH) at $38.17 a share. The stock last closed at $35.88, which puts the model's fair value 6.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Astrana Health, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Astrana Health, Inc., which rebranded from Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. in February 2024, is a healthcare management firm based in Alhambra, California, founded in 1985.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 found a fair value of $38.17 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $39.48, so the fair value moved -3.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, $32.02 to $46.54, was built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, with 4,327 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Addus HomeCare Corporation, Healthcare Services Group, Inc., U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc., and National HealthCare Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -27.7% to +28.7%, with a median size of 22.1%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ASTH?
The calibrated range for ASTH over 63 trading days is $32.02 to $46.54. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $28.70 to $49.62. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does ASTH score on business quality?
Astrana Health's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 21 | 5.6%ROIC | 9.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 3.91xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 95 | 56.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 20 | 3.31xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 73 | 2.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.0 pts |
How does ASTH compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to Astrana Health in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | $111.27 | $126.76 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | $25.97 | $30.52 | +17.5% | Low evidence grade |
| HCSG Healthcare Services Group, Inc. | $20.87 | $23.98 | +14.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMN AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. | $36.63 | $40.37 | +10.2% | Low evidence grade |
| USPH U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. | $83.72 | $79.77 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $28.06 | $34.20 | +21.9% | Low evidence grade |
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | $22.64 | $25.11 | +10.9% | Low evidence grade |
| NHC National HealthCare Corporation | $227.66 | $263.84 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does ASTH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Astrana Health's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 20.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ASTH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 22.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -0.2% |
| 7 May 2026 | +11.5% |
| 2 Mar 2026 | +20.6% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | -23.2% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +28.7% |
| 8 May 2025 | -24.8% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -27.7% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -21.1% |
Astrana Health at a glance
Astrana Health, Inc., which rebranded from Apollo Medical Holdings, Inc. in February 2024, is a healthcare management firm based in Alhambra, California, founded in 1985.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Astrana Health on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ASTH was $39.48. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $38.17, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Astrana Health's valuation
Is Astrana Health stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ASTH reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $38.17 a share against a last close of $35.88, a gap of +6.4%.
What is ASTH's fair value?
$38.17 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $28.70 to $49.62.
What price range does the model give ASTH?
$32.02 to $46.54 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Astrana Health report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ASTH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 22.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +28.7% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ASTH is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.