NASDAQ: ACHC · Medical Care Facilities
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) at $36.86 a share. The stock last closed at $29.62, which puts the model's fair value 24.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $37.46 to $36.86 (-1.6%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $29.62 is 24.4% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 28% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 27 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give ACHC?
The calibrated range for ACHC over 63 trading days is $22.23 to $42.14. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that ACHC's own options imply (97% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $16.19 to $65.65. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) operates in the medical care facilities group of the healthcare sector. It delivers a comprehensive range of behavioural health services across the United States and Puerto Rico.
On 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put Acadia Healthcare's fair value at $36.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $37.46, so the fair value moved -1.6%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $22.23 to $42.14. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, based on input completeness, the number of comparable companies and how closely they agree, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 48 out of 100 against comparable companies. Earnings quality is the highest factor at 100, while stability is the lowest at 2, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 14.0 points against a peer median of 0.9 points. The model compares the company with Addus HomeCare Corporation (ADUS), Healthcare Services Group, Inc. (HCSG), Option Care Health, Inc. (OPCH) and Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON), each with a fair value on the site. It also compares it with Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD), National HealthCare Corporation (NHC), AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (AMN) and Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH), which have no fair value on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does ACHC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
On 2 Nov 2026, ACHC's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 27.9% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across ACHC's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in ACHC
How does ACHC score on business quality?
Acadia Healthcare's overall quality score is 48 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 31 | 7.4%ROIC | 9.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 38 | 5.0%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -3.50xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.45x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 2 | 14.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 0.9 pts |
How does ACHC compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to Acadia Healthcare in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | $30.60 | $32.25 | +5.4% | Low evidence grade |
| NHC National HealthCare Corporation | $205.83 | $255.41 | +24.1% | Low evidence grade |
| ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | $126.55 | $141.59 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| AMN AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. | $45.30 | $52.07 | +14.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ASTH Astrana Health, Inc. | $36.73 | $43.84 | +19.4% | Low evidence grade |
| HCSG Healthcare Services Group, Inc. | $25.57 | $24.09 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | $31.77 | $33.23 | +4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $40.15 | $42.06 | +4.8% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for ACHC, the peer-implied price, is $73.23 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Acadia Healthcare at a glance
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. specializes in delivering a comprehensive range of behavioral health services, with its operations spanning the United States and Puerto Rico.
- Market value
- $2.8B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.80
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Acadia Healthcare on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for ACHC was $37.46. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $36.86, a change of -1.6%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Acadia Healthcare's valuation
Is Acadia Healthcare stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts ACHC's fair value at $36.86 a share against a last close of $29.62, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is ACHC's fair value?
$36.86 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $16.19 to $65.65.
What price range does the model give ACHC?
$22.23 to $42.14 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has ACHC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +29.8% around the report of 25 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ACHC is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on ACHC
The model has an idea open on ACHC under Scorecard Leaders since 27 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on ACHC with their outcomes. A free account is enough.