AMEX: NHC · Medical Care Facilities
National HealthCare (NHC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values National HealthCare (NHC) at $263.84 a share. The stock last closed at $227.66, which puts the model's fair value 15.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. National HealthCare Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) is a prominent provider in the healthcare sector, involved in the operation, management, and service provision for a wide array of elder care and health facilities.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $263.84 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $259.88, a move of +1.5%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $221.36 to $321.70, built from the fair value. This type of range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc., Addus HomeCare Corporation, Hims & Hers Health, Inc., and Astrana Health, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NHC?
The calibrated range for NHC over 63 trading days is $221.36 to $321.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $166.98 to $399.76. In 61% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NHC score on business quality?
National HealthCare's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 48 | 10.1%ROIC | 10.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 21 | 1.04xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 48 | 16.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 17.9% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 57 | 0.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 90 | -0.08xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.96x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 3.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does NHC compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical care facilities closest to National HealthCare in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OPCH Option Care Health, Inc. | $22.64 | $25.11 | +10.9% | Low evidence grade |
| CON Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. | $35.65 | $38.11 | +6.9% | Fairly valued |
| ACHC Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $28.06 | $34.20 | +21.9% | Low evidence grade |
| MD Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | $25.97 | $30.52 | +17.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ADUS Addus HomeCare Corporation | $111.27 | $126.76 | +13.9% | Fairly valued |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | $29.00 | $29.24 | +0.8% | Fairly valued |
| CHE Chemed Corporation | $507.50 | $507.32 | 0.0% | Low evidence grade |
| ASTH Astrana Health, Inc. | $35.88 | $38.17 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
All medical care facilities stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does NHC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
National HealthCare's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How NHC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -2.7% |
| 8 May 2026 | +10.7% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | +2.0% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | +4.6% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | +7.3% |
| 9 May 2025 | +12.0% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +0.6% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | +4.5% |
National HealthCare at a glance
National HealthCare Corporation (NHC) is a prominent provider in the healthcare sector, involved in the operation, management, and service provision for a wide array of elder care and health facilities.
- Market value
- $3.6B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Care Facilities
- Beta to the US market
- 0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices National HealthCare on the value of the whole business against its operating profit, compared with where that ratio has sat before (EV/EBITDA against its own history), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NHC was $259.88. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $263.84, a change of +1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about National HealthCare's valuation
Is National HealthCare stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NHC reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $263.84 a share against a last close of $227.66, a gap of +15.9%.
What is NHC's fair value?
$263.84 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $166.98 to $399.76.
What price range does the model give NHC?
$221.36 to $321.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does National HealthCare report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NHC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.0% around the report of 9 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NHC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.