NYSE: AYI · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Acuity Brands (AYI) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Acuity Brands (AYI) at $406.87 a share. The stock last closed at $323.31, which puts the model's fair value 25.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Acuity Brands, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $385.27 to $406.87 (+5.6%). The peer group changed: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $323.31 is 25.8% below it: Undervalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 14 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. On the model's Scorecard Leaders list since 15 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give AYI?
The calibrated range for AYI over 63 trading days is $288.80 to $371.40. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AYI's own options imply (38% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $336.25 to $488.74. In 87% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Acuity Brands, Inc. operates as a global provider of advanced lighting and building management solutions. It serves markets both within North America and internationally.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $406.87 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $385.27, so the fair value moved +5.6%. The model gives the reason as: The peer group changed: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $300.64 to $373.18. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way have held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Acuity Brands scores 76 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors measured against comparable companies. Profitability is highest at 95, with ROIC of 18.3% against a peer median of 9.3%. The balance sheet scores 93, with net debt to EBITDA of 0.19x against a peer median of 2.06x. Earnings quality is lowest at 52, with FCF to net income of 1.41x against a peer median of 1.59x. The model compares the company with EnerSys (ENS), Powell Industries, Inc. (POWL), nVent Electric plc (NVT), Hubbell Incorporated (HUBB), Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW), Versigent PLC (VGNT) and AMETEK, Inc. (AME).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does AYI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Acuity Brands's next earnings report is scheduled for 14 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AYI's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.0% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 AYI moved 4.2% in one session, against the 2.1% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across AYI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.0%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in AYI
How does AYI score on business quality?
Acuity Brands's overall quality score is 76 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 95 | 18.3%ROIC | 9.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 52 | 1.41xFCF / net income | 1.59x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 62 | 6.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 3.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 93 | 0.19xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 80 | 1.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.8 pts |
How does AYI compare with similar companies?
The companies in electrical equipment & parts closest to Acuity Brands in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENS EnerSys | $142.58 | $234.60 | +64.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| POWL Powell Industries, Inc. | $125.06 | $151.29 | +21.0% | Undervalued |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | $98.38 | $129.30 | +31.4% | Undervalued |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $418.79 | $394.40 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| HAYW Hayward Holdings, Inc. | $16.37 | $15.13 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
| VGNT Versigent PLC | $40.28 | $52.37 | +30.0% | Undervalued |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | $222.99 | $204.77 | -8.2% | Fairly valued |
| ENR Energizer Holdings, Inc. | $24.47 | $20.69 | -15.4% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for AYI, the peer-implied price, is $526.72 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All electrical equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Acuity Brands at a glance
Acuity Brands, Inc. operates as a global provider of advanced lighting and building management solutions, serving markets both within North America and internationally.
- Market value
- $9.5B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. AYI was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Acuity Brands on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for AYI was $385.27. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $406.87, a change of +5.6%. The peer group changed: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Acuity Brands's valuation
Is Acuity Brands stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AYI reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $406.87 a share against a last close of $323.31, a gap of +25.8%.
What is AYI's fair value?
$406.87 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $336.25 to $488.74.
What price range does the model give AYI?
$288.80 to $371.40 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Acuity Brands report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 14 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AYI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.0%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.6% around the report of 25 Jun 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AYI is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on AYI
The model has an idea open on AYI under Scorecard Leaders since 15 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on AYI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.