NYSE: HAYW ยท Electrical Equipment & Parts
Hayward Holdings (HAYW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 6 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values Hayward Holdings (HAYW) at $15.36 a share. The stock last closed at $16.37, which puts the model's fair value 6.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Hayward Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 6 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $15.13 to $15.36 (+1.5%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $16.37 is 6.2% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 24 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give HAYW?
The calibrated range for HAYW over 63 trading days is $14.06 to $19.73. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HAYW's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.21 to $18.90. In 40% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does HAYW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Hayward Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HAYW's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.8% over one month.
Around its last 2 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across HAYW's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.3%.
Earlier reports are left out: the options record before 23 Sep 2026 is not comparable.
How does HAYW score on business quality?
Hayward Holdings's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 31 | 9.2%ROIC | 10.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 35 | 0.94xFCF / net income | 1.30x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | 6.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 3.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 45 | 2.27xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.78x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does HAYW compare with similar companies?
The companies in electrical equipment & parts closest to Hayward Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGNT Versigent PLC | $40.28 | $52.37 | +30.0% | Undervalued |
| POWL Powell Industries, Inc. | $125.06 | $151.29 | +21.0% | Undervalued |
| ENS EnerSys | $142.58 | $234.60 | +64.5% | Gap wider than 60% |
| ENR Energizer Holdings, Inc. | $24.47 | $20.69 | -15.4% | Low evidence grade |
| AYI Acuity Brands, Inc. | $323.31 | $406.87 | +25.8% | Undervalued |
| NVT nVent Electric plc | $98.38 | $129.30 | +31.4% | Undervalued |
| HUBB Hubbell Incorporated | $418.79 | $394.40 | -5.8% | Fairly valued |
| AME AMETEK, Inc. | $222.99 | $204.77 | -8.2% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for HAYW, the peer-implied price, is $12.46 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All electrical equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Hayward Holdings at a glance
Hayward Holdings, Inc., established in 1925 and headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, specializes in the development, manufacturing, and global marketing of a diverse range of swimming pool equipment and integrated automation systems.
- Market value
- $3.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Electrical Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.76
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. HAYW was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Hayward Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 31 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for HAYW was $15.13. As of 6 Nov 2026 it is $15.36, a change of +1.5%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Hayward Holdings's valuation
Is Hayward Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HAYW reads as Fairly valued as of 6 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $15.36 a share against a last close of $16.37, a gap of -6.2%.
What is HAYW's fair value?
$15.36 a share as of 6 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.21 to $18.90.
What price range does the model give HAYW?
$14.06 to $19.73 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Hayward Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HAYW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.5% around the report of 28 Oct 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for HAYW is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on HAYW
The model holds no idea open on HAYW today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on HAYW with their outcomes. A free account is enough.