NASDAQ: BLKB · Application Software
Blackbaud (BLKB) fair value and price range
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Blackbaud (BLKB) at $62.41 a share. The stock last closed at $41.76, which puts the model's fair value 49.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Blackbaud, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Blackbaud, Inc. was established in 1981 and is headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina. The company delivers cloud-based software solutions and services to a global clientele.
Faircurve's model valued Blackbaud at $62.41 a share on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $69.64, so the fair value moved -10.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $52.36 to $76.10, built from the fair value since there is no live options data, calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
Blackbaud’s overall quality score is 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, earnings quality 70, growth quality 17, capital discipline 50, balance sheet 19, and stability 38. The model compares Blackbaud with DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc., PDF Solutions, Inc., Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated, BlackLine, Inc., ePlus inc., Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., and Adeia Inc., as well as Schrödinger, Inc. with no verdict. The stock’s median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 4.5%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give BLKB?
The calibrated range for BLKB over 63 trading days is $52.36 to $76.10. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $34.61 to $101.66. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does BLKB score on business quality?
Blackbaud's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 16.9%ROIC | -11.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 70 | 1.85xFCF / net income | 1.33x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 17 | -2.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 5.8%Net buybacks / market value | 6.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 19 | 3.47xNet debt / EBITDA | -1.35x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 38 | 9.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.0 pts |
How does BLKB compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Blackbaud in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DV DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. | $13.49 | $14.73 | +9.2% | Fairly valued |
| PDFS PDF Solutions, Inc. | $55.50 | $46.47 | -16.3% | Overvalued |
| DBD Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated | $63.77 | $74.40 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | $30.31 | $28.34 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| BL BlackLine, Inc. | $27.41 | $34.44 | +25.6% | Undervalued |
| PLUS ePlus inc. | $93.40 | $92.48 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | $54.68 | $61.20 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| ADEA Adeia Inc. | $25.74 | $28.65 | +11.3% | Fairly valued |
When does BLKB report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Blackbaud's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 16.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How BLKB moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | +11.6% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -0.9% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +4.4% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +2.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +4.5% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -0.9% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | -14.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -13.7% |
Blackbaud at a glance
Established in 1981 and headquartered in Charleston, South Carolina, Blackbaud, Inc. delivers cloud-based software solutions and services to a global clientele.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +4.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Blackbaud on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for BLKB was $69.64. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $62.41, a change of -10.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Blackbaud's valuation
Is Blackbaud stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts BLKB's fair value at $62.41 a share against a last close of $41.76, as of 28 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is BLKB's fair value?
$62.41 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $34.61 to $101.66.
What price range does the model give BLKB?
$52.36 to $76.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Blackbaud report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has BLKB moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was -14.2% around the report of 18 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for BLKB is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.