NASDAQ: SPSC · Application Software
SPS Commerce (SPSC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values SPS Commerce (SPSC) at $103.41 a share. The stock last closed at $82.35, which puts the model's fair value 25.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. SPS Commerce, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
SPS Commerce, Inc. delivers comprehensive, cloud-based solutions for supply chain management across the globe.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $103.41 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $98.15, so the fair value moved +5.4%. The model’s calibrated range over 63 trading days is $86.76 to $126.09, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 72 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Agilysys, Inc., Adeia Inc., Alarm.com Holdings, Inc., Life360, Inc., Q2 Holdings, Inc., and ePlus inc. The stock has moved by a median of 9.9%, ignoring direction, around its last 8 earnings reports.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give SPSC?
The calibrated range for SPSC over 63 trading days is $86.76 to $126.09. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $78.67 to $135.33. In 77% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does SPSC score on business quality?
SPS Commerce's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 80 | 11.8%ROIC | 4.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 81 | 2.55xFCF / net income | 1.76x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 59 | 17.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 15.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 31 | 5.2%Net buybacks / market value | 1.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 69 | -0.91xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.16x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 0.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.9 pts |
How does SPSC compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to SPS Commerce in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGYS Agilysys, Inc. | $99.26 | $84.07 | -15.3% | Overvalued |
| ADEA Adeia Inc. | $25.74 | $28.65 | +11.3% | Fairly valued |
| ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | $54.68 | $61.20 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| LIF Life360, Inc. | $43.10 | $38.12 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
| NATL NCR Atleos Corporation | $45.42 | $57.51 | +26.6% | Low evidence grade |
| QTWO Q2 Holdings, Inc. | $56.38 | $67.92 | +20.5% | Undervalued |
| PLUS ePlus inc. | $93.40 | $92.48 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | $30.31 | $28.34 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
When does SPSC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
SPS Commerce's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How SPSC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +5.7% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +6.8% |
| 12 Feb 2026 | -9.7% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -21.8% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -22.3% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | -1.3% |
| 10 Feb 2025 | -14.4% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -10.2% |
SPS Commerce at a glance
SPS Commerce, Inc. delivers comprehensive, cloud-based solutions for supply chain management across the globe.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $827M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +5.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- 0.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices SPS Commerce on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for SPSC was $98.15. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $103.41, a change of +5.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about SPS Commerce's valuation
Is SPS Commerce stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, SPSC reads as Undervalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $103.41 a share against a last close of $82.35, a gap of +25.6%.
What is SPSC's fair value?
$103.41 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $78.67 to $135.33.
What price range does the model give SPSC?
$86.76 to $126.09 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does SPS Commerce report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SPSC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -22.3% around the report of 30 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SPSC is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.