NASDAQ: AGYS · Application Software
Agilysys (AGYS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Agilysys (AGYS) at $78.23 a share. The stock last closed at $99.26, which puts the model's fair value 21.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Agilysys, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Agilysys, Inc. operates as a developer and marketer of software-enabled solutions and services to the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and India.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $78.23 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -6.9% since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $84.07. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $65.27 to $94.84, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company has an overall quality score of 74 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its quality factors include Profitability 91, Earnings quality 48, Growth quality 70, Capital discipline 50, Balance sheet 88, and Stability 91. The model compares Agilysys, Inc. with Adeia Inc. (ADEA), Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM), SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC), ePlus inc. (PLUS), PDF Solutions, Inc. (PDFS), and Life360, Inc. (LIF). Around its last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved by a median size of 16.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AGYS?
The calibrated range for AGYS over 63 trading days is $65.27 to $94.84. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $54.42 to $111.84. In 28% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AGYS score on business quality?
Agilysys's overall quality score is 74 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 91 | 15.4%ROIC | 2.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 48 | 1.88xFCF / net income | 1.94x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 70 | 15.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 3.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 88 | -1.63xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.00x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 91 | 2.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 8.4 pts |
How does AGYS compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Agilysys in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADEA Adeia Inc. | $25.74 | $29.82 | +15.9% | Undervalued |
| ALRM Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. | $54.68 | $63.25 | +15.7% | Undervalued |
| SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. | $82.35 | $98.81 | +20.0% | Undervalued |
| PLUS ePlus inc. | $93.40 | $94.44 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| NATL NCR Atleos Corporation | $45.42 | $57.32 | +26.2% | Low evidence grade |
| PDFS PDF Solutions, Inc. | $55.50 | $52.13 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| SDGR Schrödinger, Inc. | $30.31 | $28.34 | -6.5% | Low evidence grade |
| LIF Life360, Inc. | $43.10 | $39.90 | -7.4% | Fairly valued |
When does AGYS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Agilysys's next earnings report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 18.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How AGYS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 16.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 27 Jul 2026 | +12.3% |
| 18 May 2026 | +17.2% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | -15.6% |
| 27 Oct 2025 | +21.1% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | -3.3% |
| 19 May 2025 | +48.8% |
| 21 Jan 2025 | -17.4% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -7.0% |
Agilysys at a glance
Agilysys, Inc. operates as a developer and marketer of software-enabled solutions and services to the hospitality industry in North America, Europe, the Asia-Pacific, and India.
- Market value
- $2.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $403M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.35
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Agilysys on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AGYS was $84.07. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $78.23, a change of -6.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Agilysys's valuation
Is Agilysys stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AGYS reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $78.23 a share against a last close of $99.26, a gap of -21.2%.
What is AGYS's fair value?
$78.23 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $54.42 to $111.84.
What price range does the model give AGYS?
$65.27 to $94.84 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Agilysys report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 26 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AGYS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 16.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +48.8% around the report of 19 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AGYS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.