NASDAQ: CART · Software Services
Maplebear (CART) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Maplebear (CART) at $55.43 a share. The stock last closed at $57.79, which puts the model's fair value 4.1% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Maplebear Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $55.43, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $57.79 is 4.1% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 9 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 5% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CART?
The calibrated range for CART over 63 trading days is $52.73 to $64.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CART's own options imply (31% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $35.03 to $87.28. In 49% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally. It is listed as CART under Technology, Software Services.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $55.43 a share on 31 Oct 2026. It is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $55.95, and the fair value moved -0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $52.73 to $64.68. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade covers input completeness, comparable companies and their agreement, and range width. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The business has an overall quality score of 78 out of 100, scored against comparable companies. Profitability and earnings quality both score 100. Profitability shows ROIC of 26.1% against a peer median of 10.8%. Stability scores 0, with EBITDA margin downside volatility at 27.0 pts against a peer median of 2.6 pts. The comparable companies are Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK), Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE), Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM), SiTime Corporation (SITM), Lattice Semiconductor Corporation (LSCC), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) and MKS Inc. (MKSI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CART report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Maplebear's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CART's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 8.9% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 CART moved 2.4% in one session, against the 1.2% a day that options had priced: 2.0 times the implied size.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CART's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CART
How does CART score on business quality?
Maplebear's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 26.1%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 2.50xFCF / net income | 1.69x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 57 | 10.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 15.2%Net buybacks / market value | 4.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 88 | -1.06xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 27.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does CART compare with similar companies?
The companies in software services closest to Maplebear in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | $211.47 | $183.65 | -13.2% | Fairly valued |
| GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. | $167.35 | $138.90 | -17.0% | Overvalued |
| AKAM Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $77.84 | $98.30 | +26.3% | Undervalued |
| SITM SiTime Corporation | $355.00 | $382.60 | +7.8% | Fairly valued |
| LSCC Lattice Semiconductor Corporation | $98.03 | $71.09 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $81.21 | $94.88 | +16.8% | Undervalued |
| MKSI MKS Inc. | $176.82 | $270.71 | +53.1% | Undervalued |
| IT Gartner, Inc. | $198.07 | $198.91 | +0.4% | Data under review |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CART, the peer-implied price, is $49.51 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Maplebear at a glance
Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $13.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +14.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 24
- Beta to the US market
- 0.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CART was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Maplebear on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CART was $55.95. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $55.43, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Maplebear's valuation
Is Maplebear stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CART reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $55.43 a share against a last close of $57.79, a gap of -4.1%.
What is CART's fair value?
$55.43 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $35.03 to $87.28.
What price range does the model give CART?
$52.73 to $64.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Maplebear report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CART moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.3% around the report of 25 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CART is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CART
The model holds no idea open on CART today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CART with their outcomes. A free account is enough.