NYSE: GWRE · Application Software
Guidewire Software (GWRE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Guidewire Software (GWRE) at $138.90 a share. The stock last closed at $167.35, which puts the model's fair value 17.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Guidewire Software, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $169.22 to $138.90 (-17.9%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $167.35 is 17.0% above it: Overvalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextReports on 3 Dec 2026. Options prices imply a move of about 20% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give GWRE?
The calibrated range for GWRE over 63 trading days is $135.90 to $216.13. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that GWRE's own options imply (70% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $93.23 to $203.40. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE) is a global supplier of software solutions tailored for the property and casualty insurance industry. It sits in Technology, within Application Software. Faircurve first valued the company on 11 Jul 2026.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $138.90 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $169.22, so the fair value moved -17.9%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $138.15 to $221.14, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Guidewire scores 56 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's overall composite. Growth quality is 77, with trailing revenue growth of 22.7% against a peer median of 11.0%. Stability is 18, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 9.6 pts against a peer median of 4.0 pts. The model compares it with Manhattan Associates, Paycom Software, Bentley Systems, DocuSign, Fair Isaac, Tyler Technologies and Dynatrace.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does GWRE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Guidewire Software's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 9.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. GWRE's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 20.2% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across GWRE's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.2%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in GWRE
How does GWRE score on business quality?
Guidewire Software's overall quality score is 56 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 50 | 8.4%ROIC | 8.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 62 | 2.08xFCF / net income | 1.70x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 77 | 22.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 2.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 54 | 1.54xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.45x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 18 | 9.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does GWRE compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Guidewire Software in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MANH Manhattan Associates, Inc. | $255.17 | $218.38 | -14.4% | Fairly valued |
| PAYC Paycom Software, Inc. | $250.02 | $278.72 | +11.5% | Fairly valued |
| BSY Bentley Systems, Incorporated | $44.94 | $37.39 | -16.8% | Overvalued |
| DOCU DocuSign, Inc. | $78.92 | $110.44 | +39.9% | Undervalued |
| FICO Fair Isaac Corporation | $707.40 | $849.11 | +20.0% | Undervalued |
| TYL Tyler Technologies, Inc. | $430.37 | $391.55 | -9.0% | Fairly valued |
| DT Dynatrace, Inc. | $43.70 | $61.58 | +40.9% | Undervalued |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $169.57 | $176.41 | +4.0% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for GWRE, the peer-implied price, is $104.04 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Guidewire Software at a glance
Guidewire Software, Inc. is a global supplier of software solutions tailored for the property and casualty insurance industry.
- Market value
- $13.3B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 0.50
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. GWRE was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Guidewire Software on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for GWRE was $169.22. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $138.90, a change of -17.9%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Guidewire Software's valuation
Is Guidewire Software stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, GWRE reads as Overvalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $138.90 a share against a last close of $167.35, a gap of -17.0%.
What is GWRE's fair value?
$138.90 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $93.23 to $203.40.
What price range does the model give GWRE?
$135.90 to $216.13 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Guidewire Software report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has GWRE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.9% around the report of 4 Sep 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for GWRE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on GWRE
The model holds no idea open on GWRE today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on GWRE with their outcomes. A free account is enough.