NASDAQ: AKAM · Infrastructure Software
Akamai Technologies (AKAM) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Akamai Technologies (AKAM) at $134.03 a share. The stock last closed at $108.92, which puts the model's fair value 23.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Akamai Technologies, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Akamai Technologies, Inc. is a leading global provider of cloud services. It specializes in the secure delivery, optimization, and protection of online content and business applications across the internet.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $134.03 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $124.31, so the fair value moved +7.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $90.96 to $146.80, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply. This range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The overall quality score for Akamai Technologies, Inc. is 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc., GoDaddy Inc., Nutanix, Inc., F5, Inc., Corpay, Inc., VeriSign, Inc., and Dropbox, Inc. The stock moved around its last eight earnings reports, for example, -9.6% on 6 Aug 2026 and +21.1% on 7 May 2026. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 14.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give AKAM?
The calibrated range for AKAM over 63 trading days is $90.96 to $146.80. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that AKAM's own options imply (68% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $90.46 to $187.70. In 68% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does AKAM score on business quality?
Akamai Technologies's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 3.3%ROIC | 18.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 80 | 1.53xFCF / net income | 1.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 60 | 5.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 13.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 56 | 8.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 26 | 6.11xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.31x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 90 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.5 pts |
How does AKAM compare with similar companies?
The companies in infrastructure software closest to Akamai Technologies in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. | $140.07 | $137.03 | -2.2% | Fairly valued |
| GEN Gen Digital Inc. | $21.99 | $31.92 | +45.2% | Low evidence grade |
| GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $97.21 | $126.33 | +30.0% | Undervalued |
| NTNX Nutanix, Inc. | $72.29 | $64.05 | -11.4% | Fairly valued |
| FFIV F5, Inc. | $454.04 | $459.51 | +1.2% | Fairly valued |
| CPAY Corpay, Inc. | $394.60 | $332.91 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| VRSN VeriSign, Inc. | $288.32 | $263.55 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| DBX Dropbox, Inc. | $33.90 | $41.70 | +23.0% | Undervalued |
All infrastructure software stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does AKAM report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Akamai Technologies's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. AKAM's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 19.6% over one month.
How AKAM moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 14.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -9.6% |
| 7 May 2026 | +21.1% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | -13.9% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +14.7% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | -5.3% |
| 8 May 2025 | -8.0% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -23.5% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | -14.6% |
Akamai Technologies at a glance
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) is a leading global provider of cloud services, specializing in the secure delivery, optimization, and protection of online content and business applications across the internet.
- Market value
- $15.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Infrastructure Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 16
- Beta to the US market
- 1.17
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Akamai Technologies on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for AKAM was $124.31. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $134.03, a change of +7.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Akamai Technologies's valuation
Is Akamai Technologies stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, AKAM reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $134.03 a share against a last close of $108.92, a gap of +23.1%.
What is AKAM's fair value?
$134.03 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $90.46 to $187.70.
What price range does the model give AKAM?
$90.96 to $146.80 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Akamai Technologies report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has AKAM moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 14.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -23.5% around the report of 20 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for AKAM is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.