NASDAQ: CENX · Aluminum
Century Aluminum (CENX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Century Aluminum (CENX) at $41.36 a share. The stock last closed at $35.62, which puts the model's fair value 16.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Century Aluminum Company.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland.
Faircurve's model valued Century Aluminum Company on 3 Oct 2026 at $41.36 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $44.56, meaning the fair value moved -7.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.70 to $50.43, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model scored the company's overall quality at 65 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 100, Earnings quality 17, Growth quality 89, Capital discipline 38, Balance sheet 83, and Stability 21. Faircurve's model compares Century Aluminum Company with Kaiser Aluminum Corporation, Alcoa Corporation, Avient Corporation, Cabot Corp., UFP Industries, Inc., Griffon Corporation, Ashland Inc., and Trex Company, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CENX?
The calibrated range for CENX over 63 trading days is $34.70 to $50.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $24.96 to $66.23. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CENX score on business quality?
Century Aluminum's overall quality score is 65 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 23.6%ROIC | 8.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 17 | 0.25xFCF / net income | 0.54x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 89 | 13.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 38 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 83 | 0.19xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.80x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 21 | 4.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.5 pts |
How does CENX compare with similar companies?
The companies in aluminum closest to Century Aluminum in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KALU Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | $152.03 | $142.00 | -6.6% | Fairly valued |
| AA Alcoa Corporation | $41.95 | $56.76 | +35.3% | Undervalued |
| AVNT Avient Corporation | $41.17 | $38.87 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| CBT Cabot Corp. | $76.95 | $85.36 | +10.9% | Fairly valued |
| UFPI UFP Industries, Inc. | $77.15 | $92.76 | +20.2% | Undervalued |
| GFF Griffon Corporation | $93.97 | $101.20 | +7.7% | Fairly valued |
| ASH Ashland Inc. | $69.52 | $64.91 | -6.6% | Fairly valued |
| TREX Trex Company, Inc. | $43.56 | $43.15 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
When does CENX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Century Aluminum's next earnings report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 19.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CENX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +9.2% |
| 7 May 2026 | -5.9% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +4.8% |
| 6 Nov 2025 | +15.4% |
| 7 Aug 2025 | +7.0% |
| 7 May 2025 | +6.1% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -16.6% |
| 4 Nov 2024 | +22.2% |
Century Aluminum at a glance
Century Aluminum Company, along with its associated entities, manufactures both standard and specialized primary aluminum products across the United States and Iceland.
- Market value
- $3.8B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Aluminum
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +33.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 2
- Beta to the US market
- 1.65
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Century Aluminum on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CENX was $44.56. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $41.36, a change of -7.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Century Aluminum's valuation
Is Century Aluminum stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CENX reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $41.36 a share against a last close of $35.62, a gap of +16.1%.
What is CENX's fair value?
$41.36 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $24.96 to $66.23.
What price range does the model give CENX?
$34.70 to $50.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Century Aluminum report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 5 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CENX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.2% around the report of 4 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CENX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.