NYSE: SMG · Agricultural Inputs
Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) at $58.15 a share. The stock last closed at $61.80, which puts the model's fair value 5.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $51.68 to $58.15 (+12.5%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $61.80 is 5.9% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 11% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give SMG?
The calibrated range for SMG over 63 trading days is $55.40 to $70.68. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that SMG's own options imply (37% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.09 to $112.83. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) is a leading producer and global distributor of products for lawn and garden upkeep, and for specialised indoor and hydroponic cultivation.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $58.15 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations, on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run gave $51.68, so the fair value moved +12.5%. The model's own reason is that it shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $55.40 to $70.68, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations. The model grades the evidence as low, based on how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is.
The business scores 54 out of 100 on quality against comparable companies, the model's composite of six factors. Earnings quality scores 100, with free cash flow to net income at 4.41x against a peer median of 0.99x. Growth quality scores 25, with trailing revenue growth at -3.9% against a peer median of 1.2%. Balance sheet and stability each score 12, with net debt to EBITDA at 4.57x against a peer median of 1.62x, and five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 7.2 pts against a peer median of 1.1 pts. The model compares the company with The Mosaic Company (MOS), Corteva, Inc. (CTVA), FMC Corporation (FMC) and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does SMG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Scotts Miracle-Gro's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 7.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 15 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. SMG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 10.6% over one month.
On 4 Nov 2026 SMG moved 8.7% in one session, against the 3.0% a day that options had priced: 2.9 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across SMG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.8%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in SMG
How does SMG score on business quality?
Scotts Miracle-Gro's overall quality score is 54 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 66 | 14.4%ROIC | 11.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 4.41xFCF / net income | 0.99x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 25 | -3.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 12 | 4.57xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.62x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 12 | 7.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does SMG compare with similar companies?
The companies in agricultural inputs closest to Scotts Miracle-Gro in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS The Mosaic Company | $18.42 | $21.15 | +14.8% | Data under review |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | $11.88 | $11.65 | -1.9% | Data under review |
| FMC FMC Corporation | $6.09 | $11.34 | +86.2% | Data under review |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $116.81 | $124.27 | +6.4% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for SMG, the peer-implied price, is $32.15 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Scotts Miracle-Gro at a glance
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) stands as a leading producer and global distributor of products dedicated to lawn and garden upkeep, as well as specialized indoor and hydroponic cultivation.
- Market value
- $3.6B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -3.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.30
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Scotts Miracle-Gro on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for SMG was $51.68. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $58.15, a change of +12.5%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Scotts Miracle-Gro's valuation
Is Scotts Miracle-Gro stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts SMG's fair value at $58.15 a share against a last close of $61.80, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is SMG's fair value?
$58.15 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.09 to $112.83.
What price range does the model give SMG?
$55.40 to $70.68 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Scotts Miracle-Gro report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has SMG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -21.9% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for SMG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on SMG
The model holds no idea open on SMG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on SMG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.