NASDAQ: CG · Asset Management
Carlyle Group (CG) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Carlyle Group (CG) at $33.13 a share. The stock last closed at $39.96, which puts the model's fair value 17.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. The Carlyle Group Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $31.74 to $33.13 (+4.4%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $39.96 is 17.1% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextReports on 6 Nov 2026. Options expiring after the report price a move of about 12% either way. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CG?
The calibrated range for CG over 63 trading days is $34.91 to $47.17. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CG's own options imply (45% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.88 to $60.70. In 41% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is a leading global investment firm in asset management, within financial services. It employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies.
Faircurve's model put the fair value at $33.13 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This was up from $31.74 on the previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, a move of +4.4%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $37.24 to $50.64. It is built from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations, and refreshed that day. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade reflects how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 23 out of 100 against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Earnings quality scores 0, with free cash flow to net income at -5.49x against a peer median of 1.06x. Balance sheet scores 7, with net debt to EBITDA at 12.76x against a peer median of 1.44x. Capital discipline scores 50, with net buybacks at 6.4% of market value against a peer median of 1.3%. The comparable companies are Equitable Holdings (EQH), Franklin Resources (BEN), SEI Investments Company (SEIC), Invesco (IVZ), Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), T. Rowe Price Group (TROW), Principal Financial Group (PFG) and Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does CG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carlyle Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 12.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.1% over one month.
On 5 Nov 2026 CG moved 6.5% in one session, against the 2.9% a day that options had priced: 2.2 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CG's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CG
How does CG score on business quality?
Carlyle Group's overall quality score is 23 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 30 | 3.3%ROIC | 8.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 0 | -5.49xFCF / net income | 1.06x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 34 | 19.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 19.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 6.4%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 7 | 12.76xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.44x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 13 | 24.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does CG compare with similar companies?
The companies in asset management closest to Carlyle Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQH Equitable Holdings, Inc. | $52.91 | $63.09 | +19.2% | Undervalued |
| BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $32.21 | $28.83 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
| SEIC SEI Investments Company | $105.18 | $102.42 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
| IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $27.08 | $31.81 | +17.5% | Undervalued |
| AMG Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | $350.54 | $511.49 | +45.9% | Undervalued |
| TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $108.71 | $125.72 | +15.6% | Undervalued |
| PFG Principal Financial Group, Inc. | $112.82 | $108.00 | -4.3% | Fairly valued |
| VCTR Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. | $112.41 | $134.30 | +19.5% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CG, the peer-implied price, is $12.20 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Carlyle Group at a glance
The Carlyle Group Inc. is a leading global investment firm that employs both direct investment and fund-of-fund strategies.
- Market value
- $14.3B
- Sector
- Financial Services
- Industry
- Asset Management
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -25.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 1.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carlyle Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CG was $31.74. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $33.13, a change of +4.4%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carlyle Group's valuation
Is Carlyle Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CG's fair value at $33.13 a share against a last close of $39.96, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CG's fair value?
$33.13 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.88 to $60.70.
What price range does the model give CG?
$34.91 to $47.17 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Carlyle Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 6 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -11.1% around the report of 5 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CG is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CG
The model holds no idea open on CG today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CG with their outcomes. A free account is enough.