NASDAQ: CGNX · Hardware, Equipment & Parts
Cognex (CGNX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Cognex (CGNX) at $53.77 a share. The stock last closed at $47.50, which puts the model's fair value 13.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Cognex Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $53.03 to $53.77 (+1.4%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $47.50 is 13.2% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 10 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 23% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CGNX?
The calibrated range for CGNX over 63 trading days is $37.50 to $63.50. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CGNX's own options imply (80% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $39.57 to $72.25. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Cognex Corporation specializes in machine vision technology, offering solutions that interpret and process visual data to streamline and automate production and logistics operations globally.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Cognex at $53.77 a share on the run date of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $53.03, so the model's fair value moved +1.4%. In the model's own words, "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $41.89 to $70.94. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, based on 6,661 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Cognex scores 70 out of 100 on the model's overall quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Three factors stand out. Balance sheet scores 100, with net debt to EBITDA at -0.82x against a peer median of 1.15x. Earnings quality scores 87, with FCF to net income at 1.53x against a peer median of 1.09x. Stability scores 0, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 3.9 pts against a peer median of 1.3 pts. The model compares Cognex with Littelfuse, Inc. (LFUS), Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. (AEIS), Sanmina Corporation (SANM), Vicor Corporation (VICR), TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI), Fabrinet (FN), Ralliant Corp (RAL) and MKS Inc. (MKSI).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CGNX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Cognex's next earnings report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 5 Nov 2026, CGNX's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 23.0% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
On 5 Nov 2026 CGNX moved 10.5% in one session, against the 5.0% a day that options had priced: 2.1 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CGNX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CGNX
How does CGNX score on business quality?
Cognex's overall quality score is 70 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 67 | 11.5%ROIC | 9.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 87 | 1.53xFCF / net income | 1.09x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 73 | 8.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 5.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 1.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.82xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.15x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 3.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.3 pts |
How does CGNX compare with similar companies?
The companies in hardware, equipment & parts closest to Cognex in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LFUS Littelfuse, Inc. | $348.39 | $432.14 | +24.0% | Undervalued |
| AEIS Advanced Energy Industries, Inc. | $185.66 | $282.98 | +52.4% | Undervalued |
| SANM Sanmina Corporation | $130.23 | $198.30 | +52.3% | Undervalued |
| VICR Vicor Corporation | $135.10 | $172.72 | +27.8% | Undervalued |
| TTMI TTM Technologies, Inc. | $62.22 | $87.78 | +41.1% | Undervalued |
| FN Fabrinet | $292.97 | $356.34 | +21.6% | Undervalued |
| RAL Ralliant Corp | $62.83 | $66.80 | +6.3% | Fairly valued |
| MKSI MKS Inc. | $176.82 | $270.71 | +53.1% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CGNX, the peer-implied price, is $46.97 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All hardware, equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Cognex at a glance
Cognex Corporation specializes in machine vision technology, offering solutions that interpret and process visual data to streamline and automate production and logistics operations globally.
- Market value
- $9.4B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +15.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 1.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CGNX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Cognex on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CGNX was $53.03. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $53.77, a change of +1.4%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Cognex's valuation
Is Cognex stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CGNX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $53.77 a share against a last close of $47.50, a gap of +13.2%.
What is CGNX's fair value?
$53.77 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $39.57 to $72.25.
What price range does the model give CGNX?
$37.50 to $63.50 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Cognex report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 10 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CGNX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +34.6% around the report of 11 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CGNX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CGNX
The model holds no idea open on CGNX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CGNX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.