TTM Technologies, Inc. (TTMI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $116.94 · Current price: $140.00 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on TTMI

TTM TECHNOLOGIES INC (TTMI) appears Fairly Valued based on our Monte Carlo simulations, which project a median fair value (P50) of $116.94. This stands in contrast to the current market price of $140.00, suggesting an -16.5% difference. While the market currently prices TTMI near its operational performance, our model indicates it is not significantly overvalued or undervalued, falling within a range where the current price aligns broadly with our calculated intrinsic value. This "Fairly Valued" assessment considers TTMI's fundamental health and market dynamics, even though there's a slight directional indication for a potential correction towards the median.

How TTMI stacks up against peers

TTMI maintains an average quality tier, reflecting its operational and financial health relative to its sector. This average standing implies that while TTMI is a sound company, it doesn't consistently exhibit sector-leading metrics that would warrant a significant premium above its median fair value of $116.94. The current trading price of $140.00 for an average quality company with an -16.5% against its P50 indicates that investors are pricing in a performance consistent with its peer group's general valuation trends. This relative positioning supports the "Fairly Valued" verdict, suggesting that the current market price reasonably reflects TTMI's standing without extreme mispricing.

What this means for investors

For investors, TTMI's designation as "Fairly Valued" at a current price of $140.00, compared to a median fair value of $116.94 and an -16.5%, suggests a balanced risk-reward profile. Given its average quality tier, the market appears to be accurately reflecting the company's intrinsic value. While the Monte Carlo simulation accounts for thousands of forward scenarios, the current positioning implies limited immediate arbitrage opportunity. FairCurve clients can access the full distribution of outcomes, including the downside scenario (P10) and the bull case (P90) targets, to understand the complete risk spectrum. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track TTMI's fair value as new fundamentals are released.