NYSE: CMC · Steel
Commercial Metals (CMC) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Commercial Metals (CMC) at $71.15 a share. The stock last closed at $63.58, which puts the model's fair value 11.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Commercial Metals Company.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is an international enterprise specializing in the production, recycling, and fabrication of steel and metal products, along with providing related services.
Faircurve's model on 28 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $71.15 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $71.08, so the fair value moved +0.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $59.69 to $86.75, built from the fair value since there is no live options data, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The model gives the business an overall quality score of 58 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 70, with ROIC 9.7% against a peer median of 8.1%. Earnings quality is 47, with FCF / net income 0.68x against a peer median of 0.82x. The model compares it with Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS), Worthington Steel, Inc. (WS), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD), and Nucor Corporation (NUE). The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports, from the close before each report to the close after it, ranged from -6.6% to +4.5%, with a median size of 2.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CMC?
The calibrated range for CMC over 63 trading days is $59.69 to $86.75. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $42.62 to $109.80. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CMC score on business quality?
Commercial Metals's overall quality score is 58 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 70 | 9.7%ROIC | 8.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 47 | 0.68xFCF / net income | 0.82x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 69 | -1.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 2.7% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 41 | 2.47xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.42x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 40 | 3.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does CMC compare with similar companies?
The companies in steel closest to Commercial Metals in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $11.32 | $8.40 | -25.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | $388.47 | $387.08 | -0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $400.31 | $366.84 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | $36.97 | $41.34 | +11.8% | Fairly valued |
| STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $231.99 | $236.50 | +1.9% | Fairly valued |
| NUE Nucor Corporation | $240.39 | $262.65 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
When does CMC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Commercial Metals's next earnings report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CMC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | -2.9% |
| 26 Mar 2026 | -6.6% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | -1.0% |
| 16 Oct 2025 | -3.9% |
| 23 Jun 2025 | +2.8% |
| 20 Mar 2025 | -0.6% |
| 6 Jan 2025 | 0.0% |
| 17 Oct 2024 | +4.5% |
Commercial Metals at a glance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is an international enterprise specializing in the production, recycling, and fabrication of steel and metal products, along with providing related services.
- Market value
- $7.3B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $10.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.28
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Commercial Metals on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CMC was $71.08. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $71.15, a change of +0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Commercial Metals's valuation
Is Commercial Metals stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CMC reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $71.15 a share against a last close of $63.58, a gap of +11.9%.
What is CMC's fair value?
$71.15 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $42.62 to $109.80.
What price range does the model give CMC?
$59.69 to $86.75 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Commercial Metals report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 15 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CMC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -6.6% around the report of 26 Mar 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CMC is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.