NYSE: CRS · Steel
Carpenter Technology (CRS) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Carpenter Technology (CRS) at $284.42 a share. The stock last closed at $278.88, which puts the model's fair value 2.0% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Carpenter Technology Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 held the fair value at $284.42, within 1% of the run of 24 Oct 2026.
What the model makes of itThe price of $278.88 is 2.0% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 28 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CRS?
The calibrated range for CRS over 63 trading days is $235.49 to $343.28. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CRS's own options imply (57% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $171.15 to $456.15. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Carpenter Technology Corporation is a global leader in the production and supply of high-performance metallic materials. It serves markets across the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, Mexico, and Canada.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Carpenter Technology at $284.42 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $286.01, so the model's fair value moved -0.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $254.97 to $357.49. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and it is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model compares Carpenter Technology with four companies that each have a fair value of their own on the site: Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. (RS), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) and Nucor Corporation (NUE). Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) and Worthington Steel, Inc. (WS) are also comparable companies, but they have no verdict on this date. The sheet gives no quality score for the business and no factor measure against the peer median, so this note cannot report either.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does CRS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Carpenter Technology's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 10.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CRS's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 16.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CRS's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CRS
How does CRS compare with similar companies?
The companies in steel closest to Carpenter Technology in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $414.04 | $418.36 | +1.0% | Fairly valued |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $11.27 | $11.64 | +3.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CMC Commercial Metals Company | $62.22 | $70.05 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $221.90 | $270.35 | +21.8% | Undervalued |
| NUE Nucor Corporation | $245.68 | $282.12 | +14.8% | Fairly valued |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | $35.90 | $30.68 | -14.5% | Low evidence grade |
Carpenter Technology at a glance
Carpenter Technology Corporation is a global leader in the production and supply of high-performance metallic materials, serving markets across the United States, Europe, Asia Pacific, Mexico, and Canada.
- Market value
- $14.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Carpenter Technology on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CRS was $286.01. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $284.42, a change of -0.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Carpenter Technology's valuation
Is Carpenter Technology stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CRS's fair value at $284.42 a share against a last close of $278.88, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is CRS's fair value?
$284.42 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $171.15 to $456.15.
What price range does the model give CRS?
$235.49 to $343.28 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Carpenter Technology report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CRS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +28.4% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CRS is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CRS
The model holds no idea open on CRS today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CRS with their outcomes. A free account is enough.