NASDAQ: STLD · Steel
Steel Dynamics (STLD) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Steel Dynamics (STLD) at $236.50 a share. The stock last closed at $231.99, which puts the model's fair value 1.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Steel Dynamics, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions.
Faircurve's model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $236.50 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $239.81, so the fair value moved -1.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $198.42 to $288.37, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 72 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 12.3% against a peer median of 7.8%. The model compares it with Nucor Corporation, Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co., Commercial Metals Company, and Worthington Steel, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -3.1% to +7.9%, with a median size of 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give STLD?
The calibrated range for STLD over 63 trading days is $198.42 to $288.37. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $169.26 to $323.53. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does STLD score on business quality?
Steel Dynamics's overall quality score is 72 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 12.3%ROIC | 7.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 34 | 0.59xFCF / net income | 0.41x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 79 | 3.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 72 | 2.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 72 | 1.22xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.29x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 4.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does STLD compare with similar companies?
The companies in steel closest to Steel Dynamics in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUE Nucor Corporation | $240.39 | $262.65 | +9.3% | Fairly valued |
| RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $400.31 | $366.84 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| CRS Carpenter Technology Corporation | $388.47 | $387.08 | -0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| CMC Commercial Metals Company | $63.58 | $71.15 | +11.9% | Fairly valued |
| CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $11.32 | $8.40 | -25.8% | Low evidence grade |
| WS Worthington Steel, Inc. | $36.97 | $41.34 | +11.8% | Fairly valued |
When does STLD report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Steel Dynamics's next earnings report is scheduled for 19 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 12.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How STLD moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 20 Jul 2026 | -0.8% |
| 22 Apr 2026 | +2.2% |
| 26 Jan 2026 | -3.1% |
| 20 Oct 2025 | +7.8% |
| 21 Jul 2025 | +0.5% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +7.9% |
| 22 Jan 2025 | -1.9% |
| 16 Oct 2024 | +5.1% |
Steel Dynamics at a glance
Steel Dynamics, Inc. is a prominent American steel manufacturer and metal recycling enterprise, conducting its operations through three distinct business divisions.
- Market value
- $33.5B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Steel
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $24.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +31.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.09
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Steel Dynamics on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for STLD was $239.81. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $236.50, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Steel Dynamics's valuation
Is Steel Dynamics stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, STLD reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $236.50 a share against a last close of $231.99, a gap of +1.9%.
What is STLD's fair value?
$236.50 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $169.26 to $323.53.
What price range does the model give STLD?
$198.42 to $288.37 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Steel Dynamics report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 19 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has STLD moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +7.9% around the report of 22 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for STLD is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.