NYSE: COHR · Hardware, Equipment & Parts
Coherent (COHR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Coherent (COHR) at $244.43 a share. The stock last closed at $337.04, which puts the model's fair value 27.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Coherent, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
Coherent, Inc. specializes in advanced laser technologies, offering a comprehensive suite of products that includes lasers, laser-based solutions, and complete systems.
Faircurve's model on 29 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $244.43 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -3.3% from the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $252.66. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $278.20 to $471.37, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model graded the evidence as Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 33 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its growth quality scores 88, with revenue growth trailing 22.5% against a peer median of 8.1%. Profitability scores 23, with ROIC 5.8% against a peer median of 9.4%. Earnings quality scores 4, with FCF / net income -1.28x against a peer median of 1.14x. The model compares it with Garmin Ltd., Keysight Technologies, Inc., Flex Ltd., Jabil Inc., Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Corning Inc, MKS Inc., and Fortive Corporation. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports was 11.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give COHR?
The calibrated range for COHR over 63 trading days is $278.20 to $471.37. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that COHR's own options imply (74% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $169.01 to $349.03. In 37% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does COHR score on business quality?
Coherent's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 23 | 5.8%ROIC | 9.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 4 | -1.28xFCF / net income | 1.14x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 88 | 22.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 2 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 49 | 1.52xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 27 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does COHR compare with similar companies?
The companies in hardware, equipment & parts closest to Coherent in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRMN Garmin Ltd. | $281.16 | $284.36 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $384.64 | $340.19 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
| FLEX Flex Ltd. | $116.61 | $113.69 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| JBL Jabil Inc. | $304.41 | $433.08 | +42.3% | Undervalued |
| TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | $617.17 | $565.86 | -8.3% | Fairly valued |
| GLW Corning Inc | $164.19 | $155.67 | -5.2% | Fairly valued |
| MKSI MKS Inc. | $279.15 | $334.18 | +19.7% | Undervalued |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | $57.47 | $49.53 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
All hardware, equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does COHR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Coherent's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. COHR's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.5% over one month.
On 1 Oct 2026 COHR moved 10.9% in one session, against the 4.5% a day that options had priced: 2.4 times the implied size.
How COHR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2026 | -0.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -4.9% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | -8.7% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +23.8% |
| 13 Aug 2025 | -21.4% |
| 7 May 2025 | +1.1% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | +14.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +17.0% |
Coherent at a glance
Coherent, Inc. specializes in advanced laser technologies, offering a comprehensive suite of products that includes lasers, laser-based solutions, and complete systems.
- Market value
- $57.9B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $11.6B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +49.0%
- Analysts with estimates
- 13
- Beta to the US market
- 3.34
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Coherent on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for COHR was $252.66. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $244.43, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Coherent's valuation
Is Coherent stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, COHR reads as Overvalued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $244.43 a share against a last close of $337.04, a gap of -27.5%.
What is COHR's fair value?
$244.43 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $169.01 to $349.03.
What price range does the model give COHR?
$278.20 to $471.37 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Coherent report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has COHR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.8% around the report of 5 Nov 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for COHR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.