NYSE: JBL · Hardware, Equipment & Parts
Jabil (JBL) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Jabil (JBL) at $433.08 a share. The stock last closed at $304.41, which puts the model's fair value 42.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Jabil Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Jabil Inc. is a global provider of manufacturing services and comprehensive solutions. The company organises its operations into two main divisions: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS).
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $433.08 a share on 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $420.09, so the fair value moved +3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $272.28 to $369.94. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade was High.
The overall quality score was 81 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares the company with Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Flex Ltd., Garmin Ltd., Coherent, Inc., Keysight Technologies, Inc., MKS Inc., Fortive Corporation, and Fabrinet. The stock moved -6.0% around its 30 Sep 2026 earnings report and +2.6% around its 24 Sep 2026 report.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give JBL?
The calibrated range for JBL over 63 trading days is $272.28 to $369.94. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that JBL's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $341.94 to $537.95. In 91% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does JBL score on business quality?
Jabil's overall quality score is 81 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | 34.8%ROIC | 11.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | 1.65xFCF / net income | 0.60x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 90 | 20.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 5.6%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 52 | 0.91xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.67x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 0.5 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.1 pts |
How does JBL compare with similar companies?
The companies in hardware, equipment & parts closest to Jabil in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDY Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | $617.17 | $565.86 | -8.3% | Fairly valued |
| FLEX Flex Ltd. | $116.61 | $113.69 | -2.5% | Fairly valued |
| GRMN Garmin Ltd. | $281.16 | $284.36 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| COHR Coherent, Inc. | $337.04 | $244.43 | -27.5% | Overvalued |
| KEYS Keysight Technologies, Inc. | $384.64 | $340.19 | -11.6% | Fairly valued |
| MKSI MKS Inc. | $279.15 | $334.18 | +19.7% | Undervalued |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | $57.47 | $49.53 | -13.8% | Fairly valued |
| FN Fabrinet | $463.69 | $431.48 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
All hardware, equipment & parts stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does JBL report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Jabil's next earnings report is scheduled for 16 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. JBL's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.5% over one month.
On 30 Sep 2026 JBL moved 10.1% in one session, against the 3.5% a day that options had priced: 2.8 times the implied size, around an earnings report.
How JBL moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Sep 2026 | -6.0% |
| 24 Sep 2026 | +2.6% |
| 17 Jun 2026 | -1.0% |
| 18 Mar 2026 | +1.1% |
| 17 Dec 2025 | +2.1% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | -4.2% |
| 17 Jun 2025 | +13.2% |
| 20 Mar 2025 | +4.1% |
Jabil at a glance
Jabil Inc. is a global provider of manufacturing services and comprehensive solutions. The company organizes its operations into two main divisions: Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS).
- Market value
- $33.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $45.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +17.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 2.13
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Jabil on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for JBL was $420.09. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $433.08, a change of +3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Jabil's valuation
Is Jabil stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, JBL reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $433.08 a share against a last close of $304.41, a gap of +42.3%.
What is JBL's fair value?
$433.08 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $341.94 to $537.95.
What price range does the model give JBL?
$272.28 to $369.94 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Jabil report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 16 Dec 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has JBL moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +13.2% around the report of 17 Jun 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for JBL is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.