NASDAQ: CROX · Footwear & Accessories
Crocs (CROX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Crocs (CROX) at $166.37 a share. The stock last closed at $152.93, which puts the model's fair value 8.8% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Crocs, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $140.05 to $166.37 (+18.8%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $152.93 is 8.8% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 11 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 13% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give CROX?
The calibrated range for CROX over 63 trading days is $134.26 to $179.45. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that CROX's own options imply (44% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $107.67 to $248.50. In 58% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Crocs, Inc. specialises in the design, production and distribution of everyday footwear and accessories for men, women and children.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of Crocs at $166.37 a share on 31 Oct 2026. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $140.05, so the fair value moved +18.8%. In the model's own words, the stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $142.63 to $183.86. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It covers how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is.
Crocs scores 55 out of 100 on the model's quality measure, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability and capital discipline each score 83. Return on invested capital is 25.5%, against a peer median of 11.9%. Net buybacks are 9.6% of market value, against a peer median of 1.4%. Stability scores 0. The model compares Crocs with Deckers Outdoor Corporation, Steven Madden, Ltd., Wolverine World Wide, Inc. and NIKE, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does CROX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Crocs's next earnings report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 6.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. CROX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.6% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across CROX's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 19.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in CROX
How does CROX score on business quality?
Crocs's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 25.5%ROIC | 11.9% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 61 | 1.13xFCF / net income | 1.07x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 29 | -1.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 9.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 35 | 1.51xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.26x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 7.7 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does CROX compare with similar companies?
The companies in footwear & accessories closest to Crocs in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation | $87.74 | $112.72 | +28.5% | Undervalued |
| SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | $38.99 | $41.81 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | $21.13 | $21.60 | +2.2% | Low evidence grade |
| WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | $21.69 | $20.35 | -6.2% | Fairly valued |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | $39.56 | $33.24 | -16.0% | Overvalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for CROX, the peer-implied price, is $217.61 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All footwear & accessories stocks ranked by gap to fair value
Crocs at a glance
Crocs, Inc., along with its affiliated entities, specializes in the design, development, production, promotion, and distribution of everyday footwear and accessories for men, women, and children.
- Market value
- $7.2B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Footwear & Accessories
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.36
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. CROX was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Crocs on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for CROX was $140.05. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $166.37, a change of +18.8%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Crocs's valuation
Is Crocs stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CROX reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $166.37 a share against a last close of $152.93, a gap of +8.8%.
What is CROX's fair value?
$166.37 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $107.67 to $248.50.
What price range does the model give CROX?
$134.26 to $179.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Crocs report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 11 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CROX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 19.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -28.4% around the report of 7 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CROX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on CROX
The model holds no idea open on CROX today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on CROX with their outcomes. A free account is enough.