NYSE: DECK · Footwear & Accessories
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Deckers Outdoor (DECK) at $100.42 a share. The stock last closed at $79.12, which puts the model's fair value 26.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Deckers Outdoor Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Deckers Outdoor Corporation operates with its subsidiaries as a global enterprise. It is dedicated to the creation, promotion, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $100.42 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $99.72, and the fair value moved +0.7%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $68.48 to $100.49. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 77 out of 100 against comparable companies. The profitability score is 100, and capital discipline also scores 100. The model compares it with Crocs, Inc., Steven Madden, Ltd., NIKE, Inc., and Wolverine World Wide, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 12.6%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DECK?
The calibrated range for DECK over 63 trading days is $68.48 to $100.49. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that DECK's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $75.74 to $132.23. In 76% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DECK score on business quality?
Deckers Outdoor's overall quality score is 77 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 82.7%ROIC | 13.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 59 | 1.18xFCF / net income | 0.86x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 47 | 9.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.0% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 11.4%Net buybacks / market value | 3.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 91 | -0.81xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.06x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 2.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.6 pts |
How does DECK compare with similar companies?
The companies in footwear & accessories closest to Deckers Outdoor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROX Crocs, Inc. | $118.09 | $148.78 | +26.0% | Undervalued |
| SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | $45.97 | $45.03 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | $33.87 | $29.09 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| CPRI Capri Holdings Limited | $14.44 | $17.54 | +21.5% | Low evidence grade |
| WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | $19.20 | $18.77 | -2.2% | Fairly valued |
All footwear & accessories stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does DECK report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Deckers Outdoor's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 5.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. DECK's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.7% over one month.
How DECK moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.6%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -6.3% |
| 21 May 2026 | +8.6% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | +22.2% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | -13.8% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +8.1% |
| 22 May 2025 | -18.1% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -19.0% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | +11.4% |
Deckers Outdoor at a glance
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, operating with its subsidiaries, is a global enterprise dedicated to the creation, promotion, and distribution of footwear, apparel, and accessories.
- Market value
- $10.8B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Footwear & Accessories
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 18
- Beta to the US market
- 0.83
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Deckers Outdoor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DECK was $99.72. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $100.42, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Deckers Outdoor's valuation
Is Deckers Outdoor stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DECK reads as Undervalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $100.42 a share against a last close of $79.12, a gap of +26.9%.
What is DECK's fair value?
$100.42 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $75.74 to $132.23.
What price range does the model give DECK?
$68.48 to $100.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,562 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Deckers Outdoor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DECK moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +22.2% around the report of 29 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DECK is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.