NYSE: CTVA ยท Agricultural Inputs
Corteva (CTVA) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Corteva (CTVA) at $14.29 a share. The stock last closed at $11.92, which puts the model's fair value 19.9% above the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The company's market value changed by more than half within a week, so the financial statements behind this valuation describe the company before that change. No verdict is shown.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Corteva, Inc.
What price range does the model give CTVA?
The calibrated range for CTVA over 63 trading days is $11.99 to $17.42. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 15 to 30% above price, the calibrated range has held the price 50% of the time over 63 trading days, and 47% ended below it; the typical move was +4.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $10.59 to $18.71. In 69% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CTVA score on business quality?
Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | 7.6%ROIC | 14.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 43 | 0.62xFCF / net income | 1.24x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 48 | 2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | not shown | Net buybacks / market value: not shown | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 69 | 0.77xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.28x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 85 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 9.6 pts |
The company's market value halved or doubled within a week. The price is from after that change and the financial statements and estimates on file are from before it, so no multiple of the two and no estimate is shown.
How does CTVA compare with similar companies?
The companies in agricultural inputs closest to Corteva in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $115.01 | $129.90 | +12.9% | Low evidence grade |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | $21.07 | $19.63 | -6.8% | Low evidence grade |
| SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company | $49.02 | $47.11 | -3.9% | Low evidence grade |
| FMC FMC Corporation | $8.44 | $13.62 | +61.4% | Gap wider than 60% |
When does CTVA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Corteva's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 30 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 9.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 50 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CTVA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -13.0% |
| 5 May 2026 | +0.1% |
| 3 Feb 2026 | +2.6% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +2.6% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -1.7% |
| 7 May 2025 | +7.1% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -5.1% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | -5.0% |
Corteva at a glance
Corteva, Inc. operates in the agriculture business. The company operates through two segments, Seed and Crop Protection. The Seed segment develops and supplies advanced germplasm and traits that produce optimum yield for farms.
- Market value
- $52.5B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Agricultural Inputs
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Corteva on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CTVA was $74.29. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $14.29, a change of -80.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Corteva's valuation
Is Corteva stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts CTVA's fair value at $14.29 a share against a last close of $11.92, as of 3 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is CTVA's fair value?
$14.29 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $10.59 to $18.71.
What price range does the model give CTVA?
$11.99 to $17.42 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Corteva report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CTVA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.0% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CTVA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.