NASDAQ: CVLT · Application Software
Commvault Systems (CVLT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Commvault Systems (CVLT) at $161.10 a share. The stock last closed at $150.28, which puts the model's fair value 7.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Commvault Systems, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $161.10 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $162.65, so the fair value moved -1.0%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $135.16 to $196.43, built from the fair value since there is no live options data, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 84 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Lyft, Inc., Dolby Laboratories, Inc., Pegasystems Inc., RingCentral, Inc., Duolingo, Inc., AppFolio Inc., Paylocity Holding Corporation, and Bill.com Holdings, Inc. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports were 28 Jul 2026 -19.5%, 28 Apr 2026 +14.4%, 27 Jan 2026 -30.5%, 28 Oct 2025 -19.5%, 29 Jul 2025 +18.3%, 29 Apr 2025 +8.1%, 28 Jan 2025 -7.3%, and 29 Oct 2024 +18.5%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 18.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give CVLT?
The calibrated range for CVLT over 63 trading days is $135.16 to $196.43. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $116.66 to $219.42. In 60% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does CVLT score on business quality?
Commvault Systems's overall quality score is 84 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 163.9%ROIC | -4.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 3.78xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | 18.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 7.3%Net buybacks / market value | 2.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 80 | -0.12xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 63 | 3.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 11.2 pts |
How does CVLT compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Commvault Systems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | $15.46 | $17.35 | +12.2% | Fairly valued |
| DLB Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | $58.89 | $61.63 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
| PEGA Pegasystems Inc. | $33.93 | $38.77 | +14.3% | Fairly valued |
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | $78.28 | $112.10 | +43.2% | Undervalued |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $144.27 | $132.90 | -7.9% | Fairly valued |
| APPF AppFolio Inc. | $202.97 | $198.33 | -2.3% | Fairly valued |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $144.47 | $153.33 | +6.1% | Fairly valued |
| BILL Bill.com Holdings, Inc. | $43.62 | $45.65 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
When does CVLT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Commvault Systems's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How CVLT moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 18.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | -19.5% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +14.4% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | -30.5% |
| 28 Oct 2025 | -19.5% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | +18.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +8.1% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | -7.3% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | +18.5% |
Commvault Systems at a glance
Commvault Systems, Inc. provides a cyber resilience platform for protecting and recovering data and cloud-native applications in the Americas and internationally.
- Market value
- $6.0B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +10.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.95
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Commvault Systems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for CVLT was $162.65. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $161.10, a change of -1.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Commvault Systems's valuation
Is Commvault Systems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, CVLT reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $161.10 a share against a last close of $150.28, a gap of +7.2%.
What is CVLT's fair value?
$161.10 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $116.66 to $219.42.
What price range does the model give CVLT?
$135.16 to $196.43 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Commvault Systems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has CVLT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 18.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -30.5% around the report of 27 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for CVLT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.