NASDAQ: PEGA · Application Software
Pegasystems (PEGA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Pegasystems (PEGA) at $42.02 a share. The stock last closed at $33.57, which puts the model's fair value 25.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Pegasystems Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $43.55 to $42.02 (-3.5%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $33.57 is 25.2% below it: Undervalued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 9 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give PEGA?
The calibrated range for PEGA over 63 trading days is $28.50 to $41.06. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that PEGA's own options imply (55% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $30.41 to $57.30. In 70% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Pegasystems Inc. is a global provider of enterprise software solutions. It was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Faircurve's model puts the fair value at $42.02 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $43.55, so the fair value moved -3.5%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $28.50 to $41.06, built from the volatility the stock's own options imply. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium, which reflects input completeness, comparable agreement and outcome spread, not whether the fair value is right.
The model gives Pegasystems an overall quality score of 68 out of 100 against comparable companies. Profitability scores highest at 100, with ROIC of 41.6% against a peer median of 1.3%. The balance sheet scores 77, with net debt to EBITDA of -0.65x against a peer median of 0.61x. Stability scores 44, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 8.2 pts against a peer median of 6.2 pts. The model compares it with Dolby Laboratories, RingCentral, Lyft, Duolingo, Clear Secure, Commvault Systems and Bill.com.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does PEGA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Pegasystems's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 14.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. PEGA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 15.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across PEGA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 13.9%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in PEGA
How does PEGA score on business quality?
Pegasystems's overall quality score is 68 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 41.6%ROIC | 1.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 61 | 1.53xFCF / net income | 1.60x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 41 | 16.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 2.8%Net buybacks / market value | 3.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 77 | -0.65xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.61x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 44 | 8.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.2 pts |
How does PEGA compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Pegasystems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLB Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | $64.82 | $63.30 | -2.3% | Fairly valued |
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | $74.33 | $91.89 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | $17.84 | $16.59 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $157.02 | $126.57 | -19.4% | Overvalued |
| YOU Clear Secure, Inc. | $56.50 | $45.00 | -20.4% | Overvalued |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $157.62 | $163.57 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| BILL Bill.com Holdings, Inc. | $50.89 | $52.32 | +2.8% | Fairly valued |
| QTWO Q2 Holdings, Inc. | $75.62 | $86.28 | +14.1% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for PEGA, the peer-implied price, is $54.16 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Pegasystems at a glance
Pegasystems Inc., founded in 1983 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a global provider of enterprise software solutions.
- Market value
- $5.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.49
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. PEGA was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Pegasystems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for PEGA was $43.55. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $42.02, a change of -3.5%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Pegasystems's valuation
Is Pegasystems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PEGA reads as Undervalued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $42.02 a share against a last close of $33.57, a gap of +25.2%.
What is PEGA's fair value?
$42.02 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $30.41 to $57.30.
What price range does the model give PEGA?
$28.50 to $41.06 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Pegasystems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PEGA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 13.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +19.7% around the report of 21 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PEGA is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on PEGA
The model holds no idea open on PEGA today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on PEGA with their outcomes. A free account is enough.