NASDAQ: PEGA ยท Application Software
Pegasystems (PEGA) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Pegasystems (PEGA) at $37.81 a share. The stock last closed at $35.05, which puts the model's fair value 7.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 18 Sep 2026. Pegasystems Inc.
What price range does the model give PEGA?
The calibrated range for PEGA over 63 trading days is $31.90 to $46.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.06 to $56.02. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PEGA score on business quality?
Pegasystems's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 96 | 38.6%ROIC | 4.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 37 | 1.55xFCF / net income | 1.77x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 51 | 16.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 12.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 77 | 4.2%Net buybacks / market value | 2.6% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 79 | -0.57xNet debt / EBITDA | -0.20x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 40 | 8.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.2 pts |
How does PEGA compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to Pegasystems in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | $15.10 | $17.70 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $144.54 | $162.65 | +12.5% | Fairly valued |
| DLB Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | $57.65 | $57.60 | -0.1% | Fairly valued |
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | $71.86 | $106.09 | +47.6% | Undervalued |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $141.90 | $139.84 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| BILL Bill.com Holdings, Inc. | $47.57 | $47.42 | -0.3% | Fairly valued |
| APPF AppFolio Inc. | $214.63 | $202.89 | -5.5% | Fairly valued |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $143.73 | $153.78 | +7.0% | Fairly valued |
When does PEGA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Pegasystems's next earnings report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PEGA moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 15.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 21 Jul 2026 | -18.0% |
| 21 Apr 2026 | -14.4% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | -9.3% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | +19.7% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +13.0% |
| 22 Apr 2025 | +40.3% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -17.5% |
| 23 Oct 2024 | +13.4% |
Pegasystems at a glance
Pegasystems Inc., founded in 1983 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a global provider of enterprise software solutions.
- Market value
- $5.8B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +7.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.67
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Pegasystems on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PEGA was $38.97. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $37.81, a change of -3.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Pegasystems's valuation
Is Pegasystems stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PEGA reads as Fairly valued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $37.81 a share against a last close of $35.05, a gap of +7.9%.
What is PEGA's fair value?
$37.81 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.06 to $56.02.
What price range does the model give PEGA?
$31.90 to $46.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,913 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Pegasystems report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 20 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PEGA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 15.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +40.3% around the report of 22 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for PEGA is medium. Confidence reflects how complete the inputs are and how well comparable companies explain the valuation. It is not a probability that the price reaches the fair value.