NASDAQ: APPF · Application Software
AppFolio (APPF) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values AppFolio (APPF) at $228.86 a share. The stock last closed at $233.22, which puts the model's fair value 1.9% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. AppFolio Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $218.17 to $228.86 (+4.9%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $233.22 is 1.9% above it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 4 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 14% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give APPF?
The calibrated range for APPF over 63 trading days is $202.02 to $278.22. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that APPF's own options imply (48% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $141.78 to $364.83. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
AppFolio, Inc. provides a cloud-based platform for the real estate industry in the United States, through itself and its subsidiaries. It is classed under Technology, Application Software.
On 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value at $228.86 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $218.17, so the fair value moved +4.9%. The model says it shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers', which is part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $204.86 to $283.08. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. It looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model's overall quality score is 83 out of 100, a composite of six factors scored against comparable companies. Profitability scores 100, with ROIC of 46.9% against a peer median of 18.3%. Stability is the weakest factor at 37, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 7.6 pts against a peer median of 5.6 pts. The comparable companies are InterDigital, Commvault Systems, Duolingo, Lyft, RingCentral, Dolby Laboratories and Pegasystems.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does APPF report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
AppFolio's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 8.0% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. APPF's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 13.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across APPF's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.5%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in APPF
How does APPF score on business quality?
AppFolio's overall quality score is 83 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 46.9%ROIC | 18.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 95 | 1.66xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 67 | 19.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 75 | 1.9%Net buybacks / market value | 5.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -1.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.98x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 37 | 7.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.6 pts |
How does APPF compare with similar companies?
The companies in application software closest to AppFolio in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IDCC InterDigital, Inc. | $286.53 | $328.39 | +14.6% | Fairly valued |
| CVLT Commvault Systems, Inc. | $157.62 | $163.57 | +3.8% | Fairly valued |
| PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation | $169.57 | $176.41 | +4.0% | Low evidence grade |
| DUOL Duolingo, Inc. | $157.02 | $126.57 | -19.4% | Overvalued |
| LYFT Lyft, Inc. | $17.84 | $16.59 | -7.0% | Fairly valued |
| RNG RingCentral, Inc. | $74.33 | $91.89 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| DLB Dolby Laboratories, Inc. | $64.82 | $63.30 | -2.3% | Fairly valued |
| PEGA Pegasystems Inc. | $33.57 | $42.02 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for APPF, the peer-implied price, is $288.50 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
AppFolio at a glance
AppFolio, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides cloud-based platform for the real estate industry in the United States.
- Market value
- $7.6B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Application Software
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. APPF was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices AppFolio on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for APPF was $218.17. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $228.86, a change of +4.9%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about AppFolio's valuation
Is AppFolio stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, APPF reads as Fairly valued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $228.86 a share against a last close of $233.22, a gap of -1.9%.
What is APPF's fair value?
$228.86 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $141.78 to $364.83.
What price range does the model give APPF?
$202.02 to $278.22 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does AppFolio report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has APPF moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +23.1% around the report of 31 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for APPF is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on APPF
The model holds no idea open on APPF today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on APPF with their outcomes. A free account is enough.