DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $40.34 · Current price: $46.79 · Verdict: Fairly Valued

The Verdict on DD

Based on Monte Carlo simulations, DuPont (DD) appears to be Fairly Valued at its current market price of $46.79. Our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $40.34, implying an -13.8% difference against the current share price. While the market price is slightly above our quantitative estimate, the deviation falls within a range that suggests DD is not significantly overvalued or undervalued at this juncture.

How DD stacks up against Basic Materials

DuPont operates within the Basic Materials sector, a space known for its cyclicality and capital intensity. Our quantitative assessment places DD's operational and financial health in the average quality tier compared to its sector peers. This average quality rating, combined with the modest -13.8% gap between the $46.79 and our $40.34 median fair value, reflects a balanced risk-reward profile for the company. Investors should note that even for an average quality company, our simulations consider thousands of forward scenarios to arrive at a robust fair value estimate.

What this means for investors

For investors tracking DuPont, the current analysis suggests that DD is trading close to its intrinsic value, as indicated by the $40.34 median fair value compared to $46.79. This Fairly Valued verdict, despite the -13.8%, points to limited immediate arbitrage opportunities based purely on quantitative models. Understanding DD's average quality tier within the Basic Materials sector further frames the company's position. For deeper insights, FairCurve offers a more comprehensive view. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track DD's fair value as new fundamentals are released.