Olin Corporation (OLN) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $32.11 · Current price: $18.51 · Verdict: Undervalued
The Verdict on OLN
Despite its current trading price of $18.51, OLIN CORP (OLN) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued based on our latest Monte Carlo simulations. Our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $32.11, suggesting a potential +73.5% upside from the current market price. While this significant gap might suggest undervaluation at first glance, the comprehensive probabilistic distribution from our simulations supports a "Fairly Valued" verdict, implying the current price is within a reasonable range considering all forward scenarios. Investors should note this substantial implied upside from $18.51 to $32.11.
How OLN stacks up against peers
OLN's operational and financial health is categorized as an "average" quality tier when compared against its sector. This designation reflects a balanced assessment of its underlying business fundamentals relative to its industry counterparts. Despite this average quality tier, the projected median fair value of $32.11 from our Monte Carlo models stands significantly above the current trading price of $18.51. The +73.5% potential highlights that even an "average" quality company can present attractive opportunities if its market valuation lags its intrinsic value.
What this means for investors
For investors considering OLN, the "Fairly Valued" verdict, coupled with a median fair value of $32.11 and a robust +73.5% potential, presents an interesting scenario. While the stock is not deemed "undervalued," the significant headroom from $18.51 to the P50 target suggests the market may not fully appreciate OLN's long-term earnings power as modeled in our simulations. Our analysis accounts for thousands of forward scenarios, leading to this probabilistic assessment. To understand the full range of potential outcomes for OLN, including the bear (P10) and bull (P90) case scenarios, sign up for a free FairCurve account to track its fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OLN overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, OLIN CORP (OLN) is currently assessed as Fairly Valued. Its median fair value (P50) is $32.11 compared to its current price of $18.51.
What is the bear case and bull case for OLN?
The full Monte Carlo distribution, including our bear (P10) and bull (P90) price targets, as well as the probability of achieving upside, is available with a free FairCurve account. We do not provide specific dollar values for these scenarios publicly.
How does FairCurve calculate OLN's fair value?
FairCurve calculates OLN's fair value using sophisticated Monte Carlo simulations, running thousands of forward scenarios to determine a probabilistic range of outcomes for its intrinsic value.
How can I track OLN's fair value as it changes?
You can add OLN to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily fair-value updates. Our system instantly re-values OLN when new earnings or significant fundamental data are released.