NYSE: OLN · Chemicals
Olin (OLN) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Olin (OLN) at $15.33 a share. The stock last closed at $18.06, which puts the model's fair value 15.1% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Olin Corporation.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $12.03 to $15.33 (+27.4%). The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $18.06 is 15.1% above it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNext report on 28 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 16% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OLN?
The calibrated range for OLN over 63 trading days is $15.39 to $21.98. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that OLN's own options imply (54% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.33 to $33.03. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Olin Corporation (OLN) is a global producer and supplier of chemical products. It serves markets across the United States, Europe, and internationally.
Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $15.33 a share on 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $12.03, so the model's fair value moved +27.4%. In the model's own words, it shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers', which was part of the move. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $15.39 to $21.98. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade does not say whether the fair value is right.
Faircurve's model gives the business an overall quality score of 39 out of 100, a composite of six factors measured against comparable companies. Balance sheet scores 15, with net debt to EBITDA at 7.29x against a peer median of 1.69x. Stability scores 17, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility at 5.1 pts against a peer median of 3.8 pts. The model compares the company with REX American Resources Corporation (REX) and DuPont de Nemours, Inc. (DD), which have their own fair values, and with Celanese Corporation (CE) and Dow Inc. (DOW), which have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does OLN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Olin's next earnings report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
On 5 Nov 2026, OLN's 30 day implied volatility worked out to a move of about 15.5% over one month, in either direction. That is a size, not a direction.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OLN's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 7.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OLN
How does OLN score on business quality?
Olin's overall quality score is 39 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 33 | -0.4%ROIC | 6.7% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 33 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 62 | 3.7%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 0.5%Net buybacks / market value | 0.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 15 | 7.29xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.69x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 17 | 5.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.8 pts |
How does OLN compare with similar companies?
The companies in chemicals closest to Olin in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REX REX American Resources Corporation | $39.18 | $36.79 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| CE Celanese Corporation | $47.84 | $45.39 | -5.1% | Low evidence grade |
| DD DuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $144.93 | $146.53 | +1.1% | Fairly valued |
| DOW Dow Inc. | $31.98 | $34.97 | +9.3% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OLN, the peer-implied price, is $8.11 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Olin at a glance
Olin Corporation is a global producer and supplier of chemical products, serving markets across the United States, Europe, and internationally.
- Market value
- $2.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Chemicals
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $7.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Olin on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OLN was $12.03. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $15.33, a change of +27.4%. The model shifted weight between the company's own multiple and its peers': part of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Olin's valuation
Is Olin stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts OLN's fair value at $15.33 a share against a last close of $18.06, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is OLN's fair value?
$15.33 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.33 to $33.03.
What price range does the model give OLN?
$15.39 to $21.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Olin report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 28 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OLN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 7.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -16.6% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OLN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OLN
The model holds no idea open on OLN today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OLN with their outcomes. A free account is enough.