Easterly Government Properties, Inc. (DEA) — Fair Value Analysis
Base-case fair value (P50): $25.77 · Current price: $24.79 · Verdict: Fairly Valued
The Verdict on DEA
Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate that EASTERLY GOVERNMENT PROPERTIES INC (DEA) is currently Deeply Undervalued. With a current market price of $24.79, DEA trades notably below our median fair value (P50) of $25.77. This gap suggests a potential +4.0% from the current level, reinforcing the Monte Carlo model's strong conviction in DEA's present undervaluation. The robust simulation methodology, encompassing thousands of potential forward scenarios, consistently places the intrinsic value above the present trading price, presenting a compelling valuation thesis for investors.
How DEA stacks up against peers
While DEA’s quality tier is currently unrated, typically necessitating deeper operational and financial health scrutiny against sector peers, our Monte Carlo analysis provides a clear, data-driven valuation perspective. The simulation points to an +4.0% potential, highlighting that even without a definitive quality rating, the fundamental inputs driving the Monte Carlo model position $25.77 well above $24.79. This implies that despite the absence of a sector-specific quality benchmark, DEA's current valuation remains compelling based on the comprehensive fair value distribution generated. The unrated status does not detract from the clear undervaluation signaled by our P50 fair value.
What this means for investors
The pronounced difference between DEA's $24.79 and its Monte Carlo-derived median fair value of $25.77 presents a notable opportunity. The +4.0% indicates that the market may not fully appreciate DEA's intrinsic value as projected across thousands of probabilistic outcomes. This Deeply Undervalued status suggests that current market pricing is out of step with the range of fundamental scenarios our models project, offering a potential entry point. For investors seeking a deeper understanding of DEA's risk/reward profile, signing up for a free FairCurve account provides access to the full bear (P10) and bull (P90) distribution, along with tracking DEA's fair value as new fundamentals are released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEA overvalued or undervalued right now?
Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, EASTERLY GOVERNMENT PROPERTIES INC (DEA) is currently undervalued. Our median fair value (P50) for DEA is $25.77, which is higher than its current market price of $24.79.
What is the bear case and bull case for DEA?
A free FairCurve account provides the full Monte Carlo distribution, including specific bear-case (P10) and bull-case (P90) price targets for DEA, along with the probability of achieving upside scenarios. Specific dollar values for these cases are available to FairCurve subscribers.
How does FairCurve calculate DEA's fair value?
FairCurve calculates DEA's fair value using a sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation that models thousands of forward scenarios based on fundamental inputs, generating a probabilistic distribution of potential intrinsic values.
How can I track DEA's fair value as it changes?
You can add DEA to a free FairCurve watchlist to receive daily updates on its fair value. FairCurve also instantly re-evaluates DEA's fair value when new earnings data is released.