NYSE: DAN · Auto Parts
Dana (DAN) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Dana (DAN) at $30.10 a share. The stock last closed at $27.88, which puts the model's fair value 8.0% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Dana Incorporated.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Dana Incorporated is a global provider of power transmission and energy management systems for vehicles and industrial machinery, operating across North America, Europe, South America, and Asia Pacific.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $30.10 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $29.49, so the fair value moved +2.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $25.11 to $36.49, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026), and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is High.
The overall quality score is 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. The quality factors include Profitability 5 (ROIC -0.4%, peer median 9.6%), Earnings quality 78, Growth quality 27 (Revenue growth, trailing -27.1%, peer median -0.2%), Capital discipline 100 (Net buybacks / market value 16.2%, peer median 4.2%), Balance sheet 32 (Net debt / EBITDA 2.40x, peer median 2.22x), and Stability 89 (EBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y 0.4 pts, peer median 1.0 pts). The model compares it with Dorman Products, Inc. (DORM), Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. (ATMU), Gentex Corporation (GNTX), Visteon Corporation (VC), PHINIA Inc. (PHIN), LKQ Corporation (LKQ), Lear Corporation (LEA), and Autoliv, Inc. (ALV). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports were: 6 Aug 2026 +1.5%, 29 Apr 2026 -3.1%, 18 Feb 2026 +3.9%, 29 Oct 2025 +4.3%, 5 Aug 2025 +14.6%, 30 Apr 2025 +45.2%, 20 Feb 2025 -4.2%, 30 Oct 2024 -24.4%. The median size, ignoring direction, was 4.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give DAN?
The calibrated range for DAN over 63 trading days is $25.11 to $36.49. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $22.18 to $39.20. In 59% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does DAN score on business quality?
Dana's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -0.4%ROIC | 9.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 78 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 27 | -27.1%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.2% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 100 | 16.2%Net buybacks / market value | 4.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 32 | 2.40xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.22x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 89 | 0.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does DAN compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto parts closest to Dana in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DORM Dorman Products, Inc. | $123.06 | $110.31 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| ATMU Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | $45.70 | $48.27 | +5.6% | Fairly valued |
| GNTX Gentex Corporation | $22.08 | $13.77 | -37.6% | Overvalued |
| VC Visteon Corporation | $88.77 | $110.77 | +24.8% | Undervalued |
| PHIN PHINIA Inc. | $59.78 | $82.53 | +38.1% | Undervalued |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | $22.80 | $20.42 | -10.4% | Fairly valued |
| LEA Lear Corporation | $120.85 | $188.31 | +55.8% | Undervalued |
| ALV Autoliv, Inc. | $111.85 | $129.01 | +15.3% | Undervalued |
When does DAN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Dana's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 10.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How DAN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +1.5% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -3.1% |
| 18 Feb 2026 | +3.9% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +4.3% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | +14.6% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +45.2% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -4.2% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -24.4% |
Dana at a glance
Dana Incorporated is a global provider of power transmission and energy management systems for vehicles and industrial machinery, operating across North America, Europe, South America, and Asia Pacific.
- Market value
- $3.5B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Parts
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.5B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +3.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.16
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Dana on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for DAN was $29.49. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $30.10, a change of +2.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Dana's valuation
Is Dana stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, DAN reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $30.10 a share against a last close of $27.88, a gap of +8.0%.
What is DAN's fair value?
$30.10 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $22.18 to $39.20.
What price range does the model give DAN?
$25.11 to $36.49 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Dana report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has DAN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +45.2% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for DAN is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.