NASDAQ: EMBC · Medical Instruments & Supplies
Embecta (EMBC) fair value and price range
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Embecta (EMBC) at $7.68 a share. The stock last closed at $5.65, which puts the model's fair value 35.9% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Embecta Corp.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Embecta Corp. is a medical technology enterprise devoted to enhancing the quality of life and health outcomes for individuals living with diabetes.
Faircurve's model valued Embecta Corp. at $7.68 a share on 3 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations and represents a +37.9% move since the previous run on 26 Sep 2026, which gave $5.57. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $6.41 to $9.31, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, which held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score for Embecta Corp. is 66 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 97, earnings quality is 93, growth quality is 26, capital discipline is 83, balance sheet is 9, and stability is 43. The model compares Embecta Corp. with DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc., LeMaitre Vascular, Inc., BioLife Solutions, Inc., ICU Medical, Inc., and Merit Medical Systems, Inc. The median size of moves around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 22.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EMBC?
The calibrated range for EMBC over 63 trading days is $6.41 to $9.31. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +4.4%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $21.26. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EMBC score on business quality?
Embecta's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 97 | 26.3%ROIC | -0.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 93 | 1.88xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 26 | -3.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.8% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 83 | 2.3%Net buybacks / market value | 3.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 9 | 4.70xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 5.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 7.9 pts |
How does EMBC compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical instruments & supplies closest to Embecta in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STAA STAAR Surgical Company | $22.47 | $22.51 | +0.2% | Low evidence grade |
| XRAY DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. | $8.67 | $13.42 | +54.8% | Undervalued |
| LMAT LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. | $78.96 | $73.59 | -6.8% | Fairly valued |
| BLFS BioLife Solutions, Inc. | $37.30 | $34.62 | -7.2% | Fairly valued |
| NVST Envista Holdings Corp | $23.46 | $22.78 | -2.9% | Low evidence grade |
| ICUI ICU Medical, Inc. | $159.38 | $194.95 | +22.3% | Undervalued |
| MMSI Merit Medical Systems, Inc. | $85.37 | $86.81 | +1.7% | Fairly valued |
| TFX Teleflex Incorporated | $124.12 | $127.42 | +2.7% | Low evidence grade |
All medical instruments & supplies stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EMBC report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Embecta's next earnings report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How EMBC moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 22.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | +42.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | -61.5% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | -4.2% |
| 25 Nov 2025 | -14.1% |
| 8 Aug 2025 | +22.9% |
| 9 May 2025 | -23.0% |
| 6 Feb 2025 | -4.3% |
| 26 Nov 2024 | +42.9% |
Embecta at a glance
Embecta Corp. is a medical technology enterprise devoted to enhancing the quality of life and health outcomes for individuals living with diabetes.
- Market value
- $335M
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -5.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 0.32
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Embecta on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EMBC was $5.57. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $7.68, a change of +37.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Embecta's valuation
Is Embecta stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts EMBC's fair value at $7.68 a share against a last close of $5.65, as of 3 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is EMBC's fair value?
$7.68 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $21.26.
What price range does the model give EMBC?
$6.41 to $9.31 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Embecta report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 24 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EMBC moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 22.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was -61.5% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EMBC is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.