NYSE: EME · Engineering & Construction
EMCOR Group (EME) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values EMCOR Group (EME) at $836.84 a share. The stock last closed at $786.61, which puts the model's fair value 6.4% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. EMCOR Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
EMCOR Group, Inc. specializes in delivering comprehensive electrical and mechanical construction services, alongside integrated facilities management solutions, primarily serving clients across the United States and the United Kingdom.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model gave a fair value of $836.84 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $798.88, so the fair value moved +4.8%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $698.19 to $1,014.51, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices (4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The overall quality score was 67 out of 100, a score against comparable companies. The quality factors included Profitability 95, Earnings quality 18, Growth quality 75, Capital discipline 50, Balance sheet 100, and Stability 50. The model compared it with Ferrovial SE (FER.MC), Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX), APi Group Corporation (APG), MasTec, Inc. (MTZ), Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL), Jacobs Solutions Inc. (J), Quanta Services, Inc. (PWR), and Tetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 4.1%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give EME?
The calibrated range for EME over 63 trading days is $698.19 to $1,014.51. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $590.78 to $1,171.27. In 56% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does EME score on business quality?
EMCOR Group's overall quality score is 67 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 95 | 35.9%ROIC | 12.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 18 | 0.82xFCF / net income | 1.00x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 75 | 16.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 14.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.17xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.82x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does EME compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to EMCOR Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER.MC Ferrovial SE | $47.47 | $40.48 | -14.7% | Fairly valued |
| FIX Comfort Systems USA, Inc. | $1,728.01 | $1,457.75 | -15.6% | Overvalued |
| APG APi Group Corporation | $40.48 | $38.71 | -4.4% | Fairly valued |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $215.93 | $238.16 | +10.3% | Fairly valued |
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $533.42 | $579.26 | +8.6% | Fairly valued |
| J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $138.06 | $130.34 | -5.6% | Fairly valued |
| PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $676.56 | $629.65 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. | $33.12 | $34.36 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does EME report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
EMCOR Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 4.7% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How EME moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.1%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +18.6% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | +3.2% |
| 26 Feb 2026 | -9.6% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -13.0% |
| 31 Jul 2025 | -2.3% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | -0.1% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +1.2% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +5.0% |
EMCOR Group at a glance
EMCOR Group, Inc. specializes in delivering comprehensive electrical and mechanical construction services, alongside integrated facilities management solutions, primarily serving clients across the United States and the United Kingdom.
- Market value
- $34.7B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $22.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +19.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 1.99
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices EMCOR Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for EME was $798.88. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $836.84, a change of +4.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about EMCOR Group's valuation
Is EMCOR Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EME reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $836.84 a share against a last close of $786.61, a gap of +6.4%.
What is EME's fair value?
$836.84 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $590.78 to $1,171.27.
What price range does the model give EME?
$698.19 to $1,014.51 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does EMCOR Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EME moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was +18.6% around the report of 30 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EME is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.