NYSE: FIX · Engineering & Construction
Comfort Systems USA (FIX) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Comfort Systems USA (FIX) at $1,412.54 a share. The stock last closed at $1,728.01, which puts the model's fair value 18.3% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $1,412.54 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $1,411.48, so the fair value moved +0.1%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $1,185.09 to $1,722.34, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, calibrated weekly against realised prices from 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 78 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 85.4% against a peer median of 12.3%. Earnings quality is 75, with FCF / net income at 1.51x against a peer median of 1.34x. The model compares it with Ferrovial SE, Quanta Services, Inc., EMCOR Group, Inc., MasTec, Inc., APi Group Corporation, Jacobs Solutions Inc., Sterling Infrastructure, Inc., and Tetra Tech, Inc. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports ranged from -10.1% to +25.7%, with a median size of 10.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FIX?
The calibrated range for FIX over 63 trading days is $1,185.09 to $1,722.34. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $1,001.14 to $1,972.41. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FIX score on business quality?
Comfort Systems USA's overall quality score is 78 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 85.4%ROIC | 12.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 1.51xFCF / net income | 1.34x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 93 | 29.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 16.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 15 | 0.1%Net buybacks / market value | 0.5% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | -0.78xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.81x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 23 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.2 pts |
How does FIX compare with similar companies?
The companies in engineering & construction closest to Comfort Systems USA in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FER.MC Ferrovial SE | $47.47 | $41.44 | -12.7% | Fairly valued |
| PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $676.56 | $629.65 | -6.9% | Fairly valued |
| EME EMCOR Group, Inc. | $786.61 | $836.84 | +6.4% | Fairly valued |
| MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $215.93 | $233.00 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| APG APi Group Corporation | $40.48 | $37.37 | -7.7% | Fairly valued |
| J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $138.06 | $131.52 | -4.7% | Fairly valued |
| STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $533.42 | $553.29 | +3.7% | Fairly valued |
| TTEK Tetra Tech, Inc. | $33.12 | $35.07 | +5.9% | Fairly valued |
All engineering & construction stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does FIX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Comfort Systems USA's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How FIX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 10.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -3.2% |
| 23 Apr 2026 | +0.1% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +10.8% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +24.1% |
| 24 Jul 2025 | +25.7% |
| 24 Apr 2025 | +11.7% |
| 20 Feb 2025 | -8.0% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -10.1% |
Comfort Systems USA at a glance
Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States.
- Market value
- $58.4B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $14.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +42.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 2.57
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Comfort Systems USA on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FIX was $1,411.48. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $1,412.54, a change of +0.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Comfort Systems USA's valuation
Is Comfort Systems USA stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, FIX reads as Overvalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $1,412.54 a share against a last close of $1,728.01, a gap of -18.3%.
What is FIX's fair value?
$1,412.54 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $1,001.14 to $1,972.41.
What price range does the model give FIX?
$1,185.09 to $1,722.34 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Comfort Systems USA report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FIX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 10.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.7% around the report of 24 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FIX is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.