NYSE: ESS · Residential REITs
Essex Property Trust (ESS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Essex Property Trust (ESS) at $192.94 a share. The stock last closed at $268.65, which puts the model's fair value 28.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Essex Property Trust, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Essex Property Trust, Inc., a prominent S&P 500 constituent, operates as a vertically integrated real estate investment trust (REIT). It is in Real Estate, Residential REITs.
Faircurve's model on 3 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $192.94 a share. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $195.02, which means the fair value moved -1.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $160.97 to $233.90, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The model compares Essex Property Trust, Inc. with Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH), Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA), Vivmark Residential (VMRK), Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. (ELS), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), UDR, Inc. (UDR), and Camden Property Trust (CPT). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports range from -5.2% to +4.0%, with a median size of 2.8%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give ESS?
The calibrated range for ESS over 63 trading days is $160.97 to $233.90. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 39% of the time over 63 trading days, and 59% ended above it; the typical move was −0.5%.
The model's own range is $175.74 to $212.51.
How does ESS compare with similar companies?
The companies in residential reits closest to Essex Property Trust in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INVH Invitation Homes Inc. | $26.04 | $29.66 | +13.9% | Undervalued |
| MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $115.22 | $119.88 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| VMRK Vivmark Residential | $59.79 | $54.52 | -8.8% | Overvalued |
| ELS Equity LifeStyle Properties, Inc. | $58.25 | $42.14 | -27.7% | Overvalued |
| AMH American Homes 4 Rent | $30.26 | $32.69 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| UDR UDR, Inc. | $33.27 | $40.24 | +20.9% | Undervalued |
| CPT Camden Property Trust | $95.96 | $94.91 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| MRP Millrose Properties, Inc. | $24.61 | $34.31 | +39.4% | Low evidence grade |
When does ESS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Essex Property Trust's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 7.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How ESS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -4.3% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | +3.1% |
| 4 Feb 2026 | +1.6% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -2.5% |
| 29 Jul 2025 | -5.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +0.6% |
| 4 Feb 2025 | +4.0% |
| 29 Oct 2024 | -1.9% |
Essex Property Trust at a glance
Essex Property Trust, Inc., a prominent S&P 500 constituent, operates as a vertically integrated real estate investment trust (REIT).
- Market value
- $17.3B
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Residential REITs
- Beta to the US market
- 0.24
- First valued by Faircurve
- 4 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model values Essex Property Trust three ways and blends them; the range around the fair value comes from 2,000 simulations of the dividend model. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for ESS was $195.02. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $192.94, a change of -1.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Essex Property Trust's valuation
Is Essex Property Trust stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, ESS reads as Overvalued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $192.94 a share against a last close of $268.65, a gap of -28.2%.
What is ESS's fair value?
$192.94 a share as of 3 Oct 2026. The fair value blends three methods: a cash-flow multiple against comparable companies, a dividend model, and the value of the properties. The model's own range is $175.74 to $212.51.
What price range does the model give ESS?
$160.97 to $233.90 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Essex Property Trust report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has ESS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -5.2% around the report of 29 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for ESS is high. For real estate investment trusts (REITs) the grade looks at the dividend record: at least three years of paid dividends with no cut. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.