NASDAQ: EXLS · Information Technology Services
ExlService Holdings (EXLS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 1 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values ExlService Holdings (EXLS) at $33.89 a share. The stock last closed at $42.13, which puts the model's fair value 19.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Overvalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. ExlService Holdings, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the price chart, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 1 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $37.27 to $33.89 (-9.1%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $42.13 is 19.6% above it: Overvalued, on a high evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 23 Feb 2027. On the model's Quality Momentum list since 20 Oct 2026 (a strategy with a proving record). The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give EXLS?
The calibrated range for EXLS over 63 trading days is $27.45 to $40.48. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 35% of the time over 63 trading days, and 64% ended above it; the typical move was −4.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $26.01 to $43.00. In 24% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 1 Nov 2026
ExlService Holdings, Inc. is a global provider of data analytics, digital operational solutions, and comprehensive services. It operates across the United States and internationally.
Faircurve's model put the fair value of ExlService Holdings at $33.89 a share on 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $37.27, so the fair value moved -9.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $27.45 to $40.48. It is built from the fair value, as there is no live options data for the stock, and is calibrated weekly against 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence High, based on the completeness of the inputs, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the width of the range of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
The model gives the company an overall quality score of 64 out of 100 against comparable companies. Growth quality is the strongest factor at 91, with trailing revenue growth of 13.6% against a peer median of 6.6%. Profitability scores 83, with ROIC of 19.2% against a peer median of 15.6%. Earnings quality is the weakest at 17, with FCF to net income of 1.04x against a peer median of 1.16x. The company is compared with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), Genpact Limited (G), Parsons Corporation (PSN), EPAM Systems, Inc. (EPAM), Insight Enterprises, Inc. (NSIT) and Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY), each with its own fair value on the site. Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) and Gartner, Inc. (IT) are also compared, but they have no verdict on this date.
Written from the figures on this page for the 1 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does EXLS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
ExlService Holdings's next earnings report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across EXLS's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.6%.
How does EXLS score on business quality?
ExlService Holdings's overall quality score is 64 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 83 | 19.2%ROIC | 15.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 17 | 1.04xFCF / net income | 1.16x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 91 | 13.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 5.2%Net buybacks / market value | 4.7% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 48 | 1.05xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.88x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 0.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.0 pts |
How does EXLS compare with similar companies?
The companies in information technology services closest to ExlService Holdings in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAIC Science Applications International Corporation | $151.59 | $150.11 | -1.0% | Fairly valued |
| G Genpact Limited | $40.22 | $43.47 | +8.1% | Fairly valued |
| PSN Parsons Corporation | $51.76 | $61.63 | +19.1% | Undervalued |
| EPAM EPAM Systems, Inc. | $138.17 | $125.60 | -9.1% | Fairly valued |
| NSIT Insight Enterprises, Inc. | $167.35 | $156.33 | -6.6% | Fairly valued |
| JKHY Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. | $161.66 | $148.08 | -8.4% | Fairly valued |
| KD Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. | $12.94 | $17.86 | +38.0% | Low evidence grade |
| IT Gartner, Inc. | $204.22 | $195.61 | -4.2% | Data under review |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for EXLS, the peer-implied price, is $24.32 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All information technology services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
ExlService Holdings at a glance
ExlService Holdings, Inc. functions as a global provider of data analytics, digital operational solutions, and comprehensive services, operating across the United States and internationally.
- Market value
- $6.2B
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Information Technology Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- -0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 3 Nov 2026, 52.1% of the 1,081 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. EXLS was not among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices ExlService Holdings on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for EXLS was $37.27. As of 1 Nov 2026 it is $33.89, a change of -9.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about ExlService Holdings's valuation
Is ExlService Holdings stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, EXLS reads as Overvalued as of 1 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $33.89 a share against a last close of $42.13, a gap of -19.6%.
What is EXLS's fair value?
$33.89 a share as of 1 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $26.01 to $43.00.
What price range does the model give EXLS?
$27.45 to $40.48 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does ExlService Holdings report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 23 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has EXLS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +26.0% around the report of 28 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for EXLS is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on EXLS
The model has an idea open on EXLS under Quality Momentum since 20 Oct 2026, a strategy with a proving record. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on EXLS with their outcomes. A free account is enough.