NASDAQ: VIR · Biotechnology
Vir Biotechnology (VIR) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Vir Biotechnology (VIR) at $10.84 a share. The stock last closed at $11.17, which puts the model's fair value 3.0% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Vir Biotechnology, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Vir Biotechnology, Inc. operates as an immunology company with commercialized products, dedicated to devising therapeutic solutions for the treatment and prevention of significant infectious diseases.
Faircurve’s model on 26 Sep 2026 gave a fair value of $10.84 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $10.07, so the fair value moved +7.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $9.09 to $13.22, built from the fair value since there is no live options data for the stock, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and 4,327 past valuations were refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 52 out of 100, against comparable companies. The comparable companies the model compares it with are Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc., Vericel Corporation, ADMA Biologics, Inc., and Arcus Biosciences, Inc. The moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, had a median size, ignoring direction, of 9.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give VIR?
The calibrated range for VIR over 63 trading days is $9.09 to $13.22. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.20 to $15.98. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does VIR score on business quality?
Vir Biotechnology's overall quality score is 52 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 88 | -33.8%ROIC | -70.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 10 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 54 | -7.6%Revenue growth, trailing | 55.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 62 | 0.76xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 230.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does VIR compare with similar companies?
The companies in biotechnology closest to Vir Biotechnology in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XNCR Xencor, Inc. | $24.84 | $22.17 | -10.7% | Data under review |
| FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc. | $20.00 | $22.77 | +13.9% | Low evidence grade |
| SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $17.50 | $25.32 | +44.7% | Undervalued |
| VCEL Vericel Corporation | $40.15 | $38.17 | -4.9% | Fairly valued |
| INVA Innoviva, Inc. | $20.50 | $20.81 | +1.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ADMA ADMA Biologics, Inc. | $9.72 | $10.95 | +12.7% | Fairly valued |
| HRMY Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. | $39.64 | $41.49 | +4.7% | Low evidence grade |
| RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $24.44 | $21.87 | -10.5% | Fairly valued |
When does VIR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Vir Biotechnology's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 11.8% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How VIR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -4.4% |
| 6 May 2026 | -7.4% |
| 23 Feb 2026 | +25.5% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | -2.5% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -14.9% |
| 7 May 2025 | -8.6% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | -10.9% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +21.8% |
Vir Biotechnology at a glance
Vir Biotechnology, Inc. operates as an immunology company with commercialized products, dedicated to devising therapeutic solutions for the treatment and prevention of significant infectious diseases.
- Market value
- $1.8B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Biotechnology
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $118M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +257.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.68
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Vir Biotechnology on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for VIR was $10.07. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $10.84, a change of +7.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Vir Biotechnology's valuation
Is Vir Biotechnology stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts VIR's fair value at $10.84 a share against a last close of $11.17, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is VIR's fair value?
$10.84 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.20 to $15.98.
What price range does the model give VIR?
$9.09 to $13.22 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Vir Biotechnology report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has VIR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +25.5% around the report of 23 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for VIR is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.