IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $115.60 · Current price: $142.58 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on IDA

Our Monte Carlo simulations indicate IDACORP INC (IDA) is Overvalued based on its current market price of $142.58 compared to our median fair value (P50) of $115.60. This represents a substantial potential downside of -18.9%, suggesting that the market is currently pricing IDA significantly above its intrinsic worth as derived from our thousands of forward-looking simulations. Investors should take note of this valuation gap, especially considering IDA's operational and financial health.

How IDA stacks up against peers

IDA's quality tier is currently assessed as "weak," indicating below-average operational and financial health compared to its sector. This assessment is a critical input into our Monte Carlo model, influencing the probability distribution of future cash flows and, ultimately, the derived fair value. A weak quality tier inherently places downward pressure on the median fair value $115.60, contributing to the pronounced disconnect with the current trading price of $142.58 and reinforcing our Overvalued verdict. The market's current valuation appears to overlook these underlying weaknesses.

What this means for investors

For investors, the -18.9% gap signals that IDA's $142.58 is trading at a premium not supported by our valuation models. The difference between $142.58 and the $115.60 fair value suggests elevated risk for current holders and a lack of an attractive entry point for new capital. This analytical framework, leveraging Monte Carlo simulations for a robust fair value assessment, forms the backbone of the FairCurve platform. To gain deeper insight into IDA's full potential return distribution, including bear and bull case scenarios, sign up for FairCurve to see the full probabilistic range and track IDA's fair value as new fundamental data is released.