IDACORP, Inc. (IDA) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $117.74 · Current price: $142.91 · Verdict: Overvalued

The Verdict on IDA

IDACORP INC (IDA) is deemed significantly overvalued, according to our comprehensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our detailed analysis establishes a median fair value (P50) of $117.74, implying a substantial -17.6% downside when compared to the current trading price of $142.91. This pronounced discrepancy leads to our clear "Overvalued" verdict, suggesting the market is currently pricing IDA considerably above its intrinsic value derived from thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The substantial gap between $142.91 and the identified $117.74 highlights considerable downside risk for potential and existing investors at these elevated levels.

How IDA stacks up against peers

Compounding the "Overvalued" verdict, IDA’s operational and financial health is categorized as "weak" within its sector. This "weak" quality tier, derived from a rigorous comparative analysis of key sector metrics, further emphasizes the overvaluation identified by our Monte Carlo model. While some fundamentally strong companies might temporarily trade above their median fair value, IDA's "weak" operational footing makes the premium embedded in its $142.91 relative to its $117.74 even more untenable. The -17.6% downside is particularly concerning given the company's "weak" quality tier, indicating limited fundamental support for the prevailing market price of $142.91.

What this means for investors

For investors evaluating IDACORP INC, the Monte Carlo simulation presents a clear "Overvalued" signal, suggesting a cautious approach. The substantial -17.6% downside from $142.91 to the $117.74 fair value implies that current market expectations for IDA may be overly optimistic relative to its fundamental outlook. Furthermore, IDA’s "weak" quality tier underscores the inherent risks associated with maintaining or initiating a position at its present valuation. While a bull case scenario might offer some upside, the significant difference between $142.91 and $117.74 should prompt careful consideration. FairCurve’s analysis pinpoints this material disconnect. Sign up for FairCurve to see the full bear/bull distribution and track IDA's fair value as new fundamentals are released.