NASDAQ: NWE · Regulated Electric
Northwestern Energy Group (NWE) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 29 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Northwestern Energy Group (NWE) at $67.04 a share. The stock last closed at $69.27, which puts the model's fair value 3.2% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Northwestern Energy Group Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 29 Sep 2026
NorthWestern Corporation, which conducts business under the name NorthWestern Energy, supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diverse industrial clients.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $67.04 a share on 29 Sep 2026, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $67.97, so the fair value moved -1.4%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $56.25 to $81.74, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, over 4,327 past valuations. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company has an overall quality score of 40 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 10, with ROIC at 4.9% compared to a peer median of 5.2%. Earnings quality scores 36, with FCF / net income at -1.12x against a peer median of -0.83x. The model compares NorthWestern Energy Group Inc with Portland General Electric Company (POR), TXNM Energy, Inc. (TXNM), MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE), IDACORP, Inc. (IDA), OGE Energy Corp. (OGE), Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW), and Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT). The moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 29 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NWE?
The calibrated range for NWE over 63 trading days is $56.25 to $81.74. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $47.72 to $88.22. In 48% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NWE score on business quality?
Northwestern Energy Group's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 10 | 4.9%ROIC | 5.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | -1.12xFCF / net income | -0.83x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 58 | 6.4%Revenue growth, trailing | 8.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 23 | 6.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 100 | 1.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.3 pts |
How does NWE compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to Northwestern Energy Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR Portland General Electric Company | $44.55 | $60.86 | +36.6% | Undervalued |
| TXNM TXNM Energy, Inc. | $58.41 | $68.46 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
| MGEE MGE Energy, Inc. | $70.77 | $73.63 | +4.0% | Fairly valued |
| IDA IDACORP, Inc. | $132.79 | $113.07 | -14.9% | Fairly valued |
| OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $45.34 | $49.58 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $95.92 | $111.90 | +16.7% | Undervalued |
| HE Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. | $8.90 | $9.25 | +3.9% | Low evidence grade |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | $64.33 | $61.71 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
When does NWE report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Northwestern Energy Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NWE moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | -3.5% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -0.1% |
| 11 Feb 2026 | +0.6% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -2.2% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +2.2% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | -8.7% |
| 12 Feb 2025 | -3.3% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -1.7% |
Northwestern Energy Group at a glance
NorthWestern Corporation, which conducts business under the name NorthWestern Energy, supplies electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and diverse industrial clients.
- Market value
- $4.2B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +8.4%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- -0.04
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Northwestern Energy Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NWE was $67.97. As of 29 Sep 2026 it is $67.04, a change of -1.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Northwestern Energy Group's valuation
Is Northwestern Energy Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NWE reads as Fairly valued as of 29 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $67.04 a share against a last close of $69.27, a gap of -3.2%.
What is NWE's fair value?
$67.04 a share as of 29 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $47.72 to $88.22.
What price range does the model give NWE?
$56.25 to $81.74 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Northwestern Energy Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NWE moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was -8.7% around the report of 29 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NWE is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.