NYSE: PNW · Regulated Electric
Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) at $111.90 a share. The stock last closed at $95.92, which puts the model's fair value 16.7% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Pinnacle West Capital Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Oct 2026
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation delivers retail and wholesale electricity services predominantly within Arizona, primarily through its Arizona Public Service Company subsidiary.
Faircurve's model on 2 Oct 2026 gave a fair value of $111.90 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $109.24, and the fair value moved +2.4%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days, built from the fair value, was $93.88 to $136.44. The model graded the evidence as High.
The overall quality score was 66 out of 100 against comparable companies, which include OGE Energy Corp. (OGE) and Alliant Energy Corporation (LNT). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 0.9%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PNW?
The calibrated range for PNW over 63 trading days is $93.88 to $136.44. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $80.23 to $146.62. In 66% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PNW score on business quality?
Pinnacle West Capital's overall quality score is 66 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 94 | 7.0%ROIC | 5.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 58 | -1.37xFCF / net income | -0.88x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 44 | 4.2%Revenue growth, trailing | 9.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 50 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 5.20xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.64x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 78 | 1.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.2 pts |
How does PNW compare with similar companies?
The companies in regulated electric closest to Pinnacle West Capital in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGE OGE Energy Corp. | $45.34 | $49.58 | +9.4% | Fairly valued |
| LNT Alliant Energy Corporation | $64.33 | $61.71 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| IDA IDACORP, Inc. | $132.79 | $113.07 | -14.9% | Fairly valued |
| EVRG Evergy, Inc. | $79.17 | $76.01 | -4.0% | Fairly valued |
| TXNM TXNM Energy, Inc. | $58.41 | $68.46 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
| CMS CMS Energy Corporation | $63.74 | $54.30 | -14.8% | Fairly valued |
| EIX Edison International | $53.89 | $67.40 | +25.1% | Low evidence grade |
| POR Portland General Electric Company | $44.55 | $60.86 | +36.6% | Undervalued |
When does PNW report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Pinnacle West Capital's next earnings report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How PNW moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 0.9%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | +0.7% |
| 4 May 2026 | -2.2% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | -0.5% |
| 3 Nov 2025 | +0.9% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +1.6% |
| 1 May 2025 | -0.9% |
| 25 Feb 2025 | -0.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +2.9% |
Pinnacle West Capital at a glance
Pinnacle West Capital Corporation (PNW), primarily operating through its Arizona Public Service Company (APS) subsidiary, delivers retail and wholesale electricity services predominantly within Arizona.
- Market value
- $11.1B
- Sector
- Utilities
- Industry
- Regulated Electric
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.23
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Pinnacle West Capital on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PNW was $109.24. As of 2 Oct 2026 it is $111.90, a change of +2.4%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Pinnacle West Capital's valuation
Is Pinnacle West Capital stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PNW reads as Undervalued as of 2 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $111.90 a share against a last close of $95.92, a gap of +16.7%.
What is PNW's fair value?
$111.90 a share as of 2 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $80.23 to $146.62.
What price range does the model give PNW?
$93.88 to $136.44 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Pinnacle West Capital report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 2 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PNW moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 0.9%, ignoring direction. The largest was +2.9% around the report of 6 Nov 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PNW is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.