NASDAQ: TMDX · Medical Devices
TransMedics Group (TMDX) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values TransMedics Group (TMDX) at $85.59 a share. The stock last closed at $79.80, which puts the model's fair value 7.3% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. TransMedics Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical technology enterprise, committed to transforming the landscape of organ transplant therapy for patients worldwide grappling with end-stage organ failure.
Faircurve's model valued TransMedics Group, Inc. on 26 Sep 2026, finding a fair value of $85.59 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $86.72, and the fair value moved -1.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $66.30 to $110.33, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices, and it held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
Faircurve's model compares TransMedics Group, Inc. with Neogen Corporation, UFP Technologies, Inc., Integer Holdings Corporation, Haemonetics Corporation, and CONMED Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 9.8%, ignoring direction. These moves include -6.2% on 4 Aug 2026, -24.9% on 5 May 2026, -2.1% on 24 Feb 2026, +4.7% on 29 Oct 2025, +13.5% on 30 Jul 2025, +63.9% on 8 May 2025, +3.5% on 27 Feb 2025, and -29.3% on 28 Oct 2024.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TMDX?
The calibrated range for TMDX over 63 trading days is $66.30 to $110.33. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TMDX's own options imply (72% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $63.53 to $113.34. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TMDX compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to TransMedics Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEOG Neogen Corporation | $12.15 | $12.06 | -0.7% | Fairly valued |
| UFPT UFP Technologies, Inc. | $300.70 | $275.24 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| LIVN LivaNova PLC | $75.07 | $76.95 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. | $69.97 | $70.21 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation | $126.45 | $118.83 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| HAE Haemonetics Corporation | $104.68 | $106.81 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| CNMD CONMED Corporation | $46.32 | $56.50 | +22.0% | Undervalued |
| IART Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation | $12.68 | $18.08 | +42.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does TMDX report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
TransMedics Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 8.6% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TMDX's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 20.7% over one month.
How TMDX moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 9.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -6.2% |
| 5 May 2026 | -24.9% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -2.1% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | +4.7% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +13.5% |
| 8 May 2025 | +63.9% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | +3.5% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -29.3% |
TransMedics Group at a glance
TransMedics Group, Inc. operates as a commercial-stage medical technology enterprise, committed to transforming the landscape of organ transplant therapy for patients worldwide grappling with end-stage organ failure.
- Market value
- $2.9B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $840M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +22.7%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 1.11
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices TransMedics Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TMDX was $86.72. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $85.59, a change of -1.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about TransMedics Group's valuation
Is TransMedics Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TMDX's fair value at $85.59 a share against a last close of $79.80, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is TMDX's fair value?
$85.59 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $63.53 to $113.34.
What price range does the model give TMDX?
$66.30 to $110.33 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does TransMedics Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TMDX moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 9.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was +63.9% around the report of 8 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TMDX is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.