NASDAQ: NEOG · Medical Devices
Neogen (NEOG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Neogen (NEOG) at $12.06 a share. The stock last closed at $12.15, which puts the model's fair value 0.7% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Neogen Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Neogen Corporation, including its affiliated companies, is a global leader in creating, manufacturing, and distributing products for maintaining food quality and animal health.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $12.06 a share on 26 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $11.36, meaning the fair value moved +6.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.12 to $14.70, built from the fair value, since there is no live options data for the stock. This range is calibrated weekly against realised prices, using 4,327 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score for the business is 26 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with UFP Technologies, Inc., Integer Holdings Corporation, Haemonetics Corporation, and CONMED Corporation. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports, measured from the close before each report to the close after it, include +28.1% on 30 Jul 2026 and -8.9% on 9 Apr 2026. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, is 8.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give NEOG?
The calibrated range for NEOG over 63 trading days is $10.12 to $14.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $7.85 to $17.62. In 39% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does NEOG score on business quality?
Neogen's overall quality score is 26 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 5 | -0.7%ROIC | 6.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 44 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 45 | -2.7%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 40 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 23 | 3.53xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.32x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 43.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.8 pts |
How does NEOG compare with similar companies?
The companies in medical devices closest to Neogen in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TMDX TransMedics Group, Inc. | $79.80 | $85.59 | +7.3% | Low evidence grade |
| UFPT UFP Technologies, Inc. | $300.70 | $275.24 | -8.5% | Fairly valued |
| LIVN LivaNova PLC | $75.07 | $76.95 | +2.5% | Low evidence grade |
| ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation | $126.45 | $118.83 | -6.0% | Fairly valued |
| INSP Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. | $69.97 | $70.21 | +0.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HAE Haemonetics Corporation | $104.68 | $106.81 | +2.0% | Fairly valued |
| CNMD CONMED Corporation | $46.32 | $56.50 | +22.0% | Undervalued |
| IART Integra LifeSciences Holdings Corporation | $12.68 | $18.08 | +42.6% | Low evidence grade |
When does NEOG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Neogen's next earnings report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How NEOG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 8.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | +28.1% |
| 9 Apr 2026 | -8.9% |
| 8 Jan 2026 | +30.4% |
| 9 Oct 2025 | +3.8% |
| 28 Jul 2025 | -7.5% |
| 9 Apr 2025 | -29.8% |
| 10 Jan 2025 | -3.3% |
| 10 Oct 2024 | -2.8% |
Neogen at a glance
Neogen Corporation, including its affiliated companies, is a global leader in creating, manufacturing, and distributing a wide range of products crucial for maintaining food quality and animal health.
- Market value
- $3.0B
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $871M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +1.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- 1.48
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Neogen on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for NEOG was $11.36. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $12.06, a change of +6.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Neogen's valuation
Is Neogen stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NEOG reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $12.06 a share against a last close of $12.15, a gap of -0.7%.
What is NEOG's fair value?
$12.06 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $7.85 to $17.62.
What price range does the model give NEOG?
$10.12 to $14.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Neogen report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 8 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NEOG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 8.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +30.4% around the report of 8 Jan 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NEOG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.