NASDAQ: PCAR · Industrial Machinery
PACCAR (PCAR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values PACCAR (PCAR) at $116.13 a share. The stock last closed at $109.68, which puts the model's fair value 5.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. PACCAR Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
PACCAR Inc is a global leader specializing in the design, production, and distribution of commercial trucks, covering light, medium, and heavy-duty classes.
Faircurve's model on 27 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $116.13 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $120.04, meaning the fair value moved -3.3%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $97.43 to $141.60; ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 51 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Rockwell Automation, Inc., Cummins Inc., Carrier Global Corporation, Illinois Tool Works Inc., Emerson Electric Co., Trane Technologies plc, Ingersoll Rand Inc., and Parker-Hannifin Corporation. The median move around the last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give PCAR?
The calibrated range for PCAR over 63 trading days is $97.43 to $141.60. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $80.00 to $164.05. In 54% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does PCAR score on business quality?
PACCAR's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 19 | 7.6%ROIC | 13.2% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 99 | 1.25xFCF / net income | 0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 29 | -15.5%Revenue growth, trailing | -6.4% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 51 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 50 | 2.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.04x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 93 | 1.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.0 pts |
How does PCAR compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial machinery closest to PACCAR in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROK Rockwell Automation, Inc. | $454.35 | $401.06 | -11.7% | Fairly valued |
| CMI Cummins Inc. | $528.32 | $611.06 | +15.7% | Undervalued |
| CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $55.12 | $57.54 | +4.4% | Fairly valued |
| ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc. | $262.92 | $295.21 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $161.61 | $166.37 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| TT Trane Technologies plc | $463.91 | $442.79 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| IR Ingersoll Rand Inc. | $76.07 | $77.16 | +1.4% | Fairly valued |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $972.55 | $853.13 | -12.3% | Fairly valued |
When does PCAR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
PACCAR's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 9.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How PCAR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +0.3% |
| 28 Apr 2026 | -7.1% |
| 27 Jan 2026 | +0.8% |
| 21 Oct 2025 | +2.4% |
| 22 Jul 2025 | +8.8% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | -2.0% |
| 28 Jan 2025 | +0.9% |
| 22 Oct 2024 | -5.3% |
PACCAR at a glance
PACCAR Inc is a global leader specializing in the design, production, and distribution of commercial trucks, covering light, medium, and heavy-duty classes.
- Market value
- $58.6B
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Industrial Machinery
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $30.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +0.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 0.90
- First valued by Faircurve
- 3 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices PACCAR on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for PCAR was $120.04. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $116.13, a change of -3.3%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about PACCAR's valuation
Is PACCAR stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, PCAR reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $116.13 a share against a last close of $109.68, a gap of +5.9%.
What is PCAR's fair value?
$116.13 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $80.00 to $164.05.
What price range does the model give PCAR?
$97.43 to $141.60 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does PACCAR report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has PCAR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.8% around the report of 22 Jul 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for PCAR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.