NYSE: KGS · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) at $56.46 a share. The stock last closed at $54.33, which puts the model's fair value 3.9% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. serves the United States' oil and gas sector by furnishing critical contract compression infrastructure to its clients.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $56.46 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 26 Sep 2026, gave $56.05; the fair value moved +0.7%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $47.11 to $68.45, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 55 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Archrock, Inc., Weatherford International plc, NOV Inc., Oceaneering International, Inc., Cactus, Inc., Tidewater Inc., Liberty Energy Inc., and Innovex International, Inc. The stock's moves around its last 8 earnings reports ranged from -13.5% to +7.9%, with a median size of 6.8%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give KGS?
The calibrated range for KGS over 63 trading days is $47.11 to $68.45. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $44.76 to $70.94. In 55% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does KGS score on business quality?
Kodiak Gas Services's overall quality score is 55 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 68 | 15.2%ROIC | 18.6% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | 0.06xFCF / net income | 0.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 72 | 12.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 1.5%Net buybacks / market value | 1.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 61 | -0.09xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.94x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 30 | 5.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.0 pts |
How does KGS compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas equipment & services closest to Kodiak Gas Services in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AROC Archrock, Inc. | $30.33 | $27.97 | -7.8% | Fairly valued |
| WFRD Weatherford International plc | $79.72 | $98.54 | +23.6% | Undervalued |
| NOV NOV Inc. | $18.80 | $16.56 | -11.9% | Fairly valued |
| OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | $44.32 | $42.07 | -5.1% | Fairly valued |
| WHD Cactus, Inc. | $63.44 | $62.87 | -0.9% | Fairly valued |
| TDW Tidewater Inc. | $82.42 | $84.78 | +2.9% | Fairly valued |
| LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. | $19.31 | $19.89 | +3.0% | Fairly valued |
| INVX Innovex International, Inc. | $27.31 | $26.98 | -1.2% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas equipment & services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does KGS report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Kodiak Gas Services's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 14.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How KGS moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.8%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | +3.5% |
| 11 May 2026 | +7.9% |
| 25 Feb 2026 | +7.3% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -7.7% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | +0.7% |
| 7 May 2025 | +2.8% |
| 5 Mar 2025 | -13.5% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +6.3% |
Kodiak Gas Services at a glance
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) serves the United States' oil and gas sector by furnishing critical contract compression infrastructure to its clients.
- Market value
- $5.5B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $1.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +16.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Kodiak Gas Services on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for KGS was $56.05. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $56.46, a change of +0.7%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Kodiak Gas Services's valuation
Is Kodiak Gas Services stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, KGS reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $56.46 a share against a last close of $54.33, a gap of +3.9%.
What is KGS's fair value?
$56.46 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $44.76 to $70.94.
What price range does the model give KGS?
$47.11 to $68.45 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Kodiak Gas Services report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has KGS moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.8%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.5% around the report of 5 Mar 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for KGS is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.