NYSE: NOV · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
NOV (NOV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values NOV (NOV) at $19.39 a share. The stock last closed at $17.39, which puts the model's fair value 11.5% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. NOV Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $20.01 to $19.39 (-3.1%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $17.39 is 11.5% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNext report on 3 Feb 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 15% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give NOV?
The calibrated range for NOV over 63 trading days is $14.93 to $20.98. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that NOV's own options imply (51% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $12.50 to $28.76. In 51% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 2 Nov 2026
NOV Inc. designs, manufactures and markets essential systems, components and products for the oil and gas drilling and production industries. It also serves industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide.
Faircurve's model gives NOV Inc. a fair value of $19.39 a share on the run of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $20.01, so the fair value moved -3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days runs from $15.62 to $21.50. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, across 6,661 past valuations refreshed on 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence Medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
NOV Inc. scores 40 out of 100 on the model's overall quality score, a composite of six quality factors. Earnings quality scores 75, with free cash flow to net income at 1.88x against a peer median of 1.18x. Profitability scores 9, with ROIC at 4.7% against a peer median of 14.5%. The balance sheet scores 37, with net debt to EBITDA at 1.51x against a peer median of 0.73x. The model compares it with Weatherford International plc, Archrock, Inc., Kodiak Gas Services, Inc., Cactus, Inc., Tidewater Inc. and Oceaneering International, Inc.
Written from the figures on this page for the 2 Nov 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does NOV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
NOV's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 13.9% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 42 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. NOV's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 14.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across NOV's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.6%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in NOV
How does NOV score on business quality?
NOV's overall quality score is 40 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 9 | 4.7%ROIC | 14.5% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 1.88xFCF / net income | 1.18x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 31 | -1.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -0.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 59 | 3.3%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 37 | 1.51xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.73x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 64 | 2.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does NOV compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas equipment & services closest to NOV in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFRD Weatherford International plc | $82.32 | $106.05 | +28.8% | Undervalued |
| AROC Archrock, Inc. | $26.60 | $29.20 | +9.8% | Fairly valued |
| KGS Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. | $38.93 | $56.77 | +45.8% | Undervalued |
| WHD Cactus, Inc. | $55.01 | $64.49 | +17.2% | Undervalued |
| TDW Tidewater Inc. | $69.08 | $87.85 | +27.2% | Undervalued |
| OII Oceaneering International, Inc. | $34.03 | $41.98 | +23.4% | Undervalued |
| LBRT Liberty Energy Inc. | $11.35 | $17.17 | +51.3% | Low evidence grade |
| INVX Innovex International, Inc. | $24.43 | $33.67 | +37.8% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for NOV, the peer-implied price, is $19.39 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All oil & gas equipment & services stocks ranked by gap to fair value
NOV at a glance
NOV Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and marketing essential systems, components, and products for the oil and gas drilling and production industries, as well as for industrial and renewable energy sectors worldwide.
- Market value
- $6.9B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $9.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 0.82
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.0% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. NOV was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices NOV on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for NOV was $20.01. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $19.39, a change of -3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about NOV's valuation
Is NOV stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, NOV reads as Fairly valued as of 2 Nov 2026. The model's fair value is $19.39 a share against a last close of $17.39, a gap of +11.5%.
What is NOV's fair value?
$19.39 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $12.50 to $28.76.
What price range does the model give NOV?
$14.93 to $20.98 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does NOV report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has NOV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.6%, ignoring direction. The largest was +15.0% around the report of 4 Feb 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for NOV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on NOV
The model holds no idea open on NOV today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on NOV with their outcomes. A free account is enough.